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April 17, 2025
Dow: 39,208
S&P: 5295
Nasdaq: 16,290
10-YR T-Note: 4.29%
Bitcoin: 84,770
VIX: 30.1
Gold: $3,311
Crude Oil: 53.37
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
In one of the worst days this year, the market originally got blasted to the downside based on the situation with former market leader NVDA downside disaster. Then Fed Chair Jerome Powell put the finishing downside disaster on things with his comments later in the day. The only positive thing was that the market was able to cut back on some losses later in the day.
For instance, the Dow ended off by 700 points to 39,669 after having gotten blasted to a low of 39,450 after Powell’s comments before making that late recovery. And once again, on these awful, awful lower days, some investors took to consumer sentiment stocks like BA and CVX in addition to XOM for some comfort.
The S&P was another disaster, as it ended lower by 120 points to 5275 after having gotten destroyed to as low as 5230 after the Powell comments. The Nasdaq was the worst one of all due to the NVDA disaster and ended down by 616 to 16,367 after having gotten completely destroyed to as low as 16,100 before also making a very late comeback as well.
The Russell 2000 Index of small stocks went down as well, by 19 points to 1863 while the VIX rose to 32.64 due to the complete destruction in the markets.
As mentioned, NVDA warned of new restrictions on exports to China will cancel billions of dollars off its results, while companies around the world said that the President’s trade war is clouding forecasts for how they and the economy will do this year.
Losses accelerated after Chair Powell said again that Trump’s tariffs appear to be bigger than expected, which could in turn slow the economy and raise inflation more than it had earlier thought. But he also said again that the Fed will need more time before deciding whether to lower interest rates, which could help the economy but make inflation worse, or to do the opposite.
“All of this is highly uncertain,” Powell said. “We’re thinking now, really before the tariffs have their effects, about how they might affect the economy. That is why we’re waiting really to see what the policies ultimately are, and then we can make a better assessment of what the economic effects will be.”
Some companies are already seeing big effects because of changes from Washington, as NVDA dropped by 7% after it said the U.S. government is restricting exports of its H20 chips to China, citing worries that they could be used to build a supercomputer. The restrictions could mean a hit of $5.5 billion to its results for the first quarter, covering charges related to inventory and purchase commitments.
AMD sank by 7% after it said U.S. limits on exports to China for its own chips may mean a hit of up to $800 million for inventory and other charges.
In Amsterdam, ASML’s stock sank by 5%, as the Dutch company, whose machinery makes chips, said demand for artificial-intelligence technology is continuing to drive growth. “However, the recent tariff announcements have increased uncertainty in the macro environment and the situation will remain dynamic for a while,” said the C.E.O.
The uncertainty around Trump’s trade war has been scrambling plans for companies across industries and around the world. The situation is so dynamic that UAL gave two different financial forecasts for how it may perform this year, one if there’s a recession and one if not.
The airline said it made the unusual move to give twin forecasts because it believes it is “impossible to predict this year with any degree of confidence.”
The stock finished roughly flat even though it reported a stronger profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected.
Many investors are bracing for a possible recession because of Trump’s tariffs, which he has said he hopes will bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States and trim how much more it imports from other countries than it exports. A survey of global fund managers by Bank of America found expectations for recession are at the fourth-highest level in the last 20 years.
The World Trade Organization said that it expects tariffs to cause a 0.2% decline in the volume of world merchandise trade for 2025. That’s if the tariff situation remains as it was on Monday. Trade could shrink by 1.5% this year if conditions worsen, the WTO said.
The “enduring uncertainty threatens to act as a brake on global growth, with severe negative consequences for the world, the most vulnerable economies in particular,” its director said.
One U.S. company that moves products around the continent, JBHT tumbled 8% for one of the sharper losses, even though it reported slightly stronger profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected.
Tariffs could also drive up inflation, at least temporarily, by pushing U.S. importers to pass along the higher costs to their customers.
Fears about such price hikes drove a spending binge last month, and sales at U.S. retailers accelerated by more than economists expected. Economists said much of that was likely because of U.S. shoppers rushing to buy automobiles, electronics and other items before their prices could rise due to possible tariffs. The number came in at a gain of 1.4% while ex-autos were up by 0.5%.
Recent surveys have shown U.S. households are feeling more pessimistic about the economy because of tariffs, and a fear is that it could lead them to pull back on their spending eventually, which could cause a recession by itself.
Treasury yields eased in the bond market, taking a leg lower following the comments from the Fed’s chair. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.28% from 4.35% late Tuesday and from 4.48% at the end of last week.
It is another notable move for the bond market and somewhat of a return to form after an unusual rise in yields last week rattled investors and Trump.
Treasury yields typically fall when investors are worried about the economy, and last week’s climb raised concerns that the trade war may be causing investors to second-guess the reputation of U.S. government bonds as one of the world’s safest possible investments.
The FTSE 100 rose 0.3% in London after the government said inflation in the U.K. fell for the second month running in March, largely as a result of lower gas prices.
Earnings this week will see: yesterday – IBKR, JBHT, ASML lower and UAL higher in addition to Dow component TRV plus ABT, USB; today – AA, BK, SCHW, LLY higher and CSX lower, in addition to Dow components AXP, UNH which are down huge and is causing the Dow to open lower while the S&P and Nasdaq look to open better; tonight - NFLX.
Economic reports will have: yesterday – March retail sales rose by 1.4% while ex-autos it was up by only 0.5%; today - weekly jobless claims came in at 215K, which was lower by 9K , March housing starts came in at 1.32 million which was lower by 11%, but building permits, which are an indication of future activity, rose by the same amount, ECB lowered rates for the seventh straight time, March Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey dropped by 32%.
