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April 21, 2025
Dow: 38,481
S&P: 5184
Nasdaq: 15,900
10-YR T-Note: 4.36%
Bitcoin: 87,400
VIX: 33.1
Gold: $3,416
Crude Oil: 63
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
In one of the strangest days in the indices themselves, most of the market did better in terms of breadth numbers, but the worst drop for UNH in a quarter of a century kept the Dow lower while the S&P, Russell 2000 Index of small stocks and the NDX 100 ended with nominal gains.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 527 points to 39,142 largely because of just one stock. UNH lost more than a fifth of its value and fell 22.4% following a weaker-than-expected profit report.
On the other hand, the SPX gained a mere 7 points to 5288 on the basis of some technology stocks doing better such as AAPL, NFLX ahead of its earnings and COST, in addition to the energy stocks on higher oil prices. Despite the only nominal gain, three out of every four stocks in the index did better.
The Nasdaq ended lower by 20 to 16,288 as NVDA ended down again following its disastrous news about exports to China, and MSFT as usual did poorly but the NDX eked out a very small gain.
The Russell 2000 Index of small stocks did better with 17 points to 1880 on strength in financials while the VIX dropped again to 29.65 on the better breadth numbers and resistance at 60 when the S&P fell intraday to 20% hopefully will prevent this one from getting any higher.
Helping to lead the way up was LLY, which rose by 14% after the drugmaker reported encouraging results for a once-daily pill that could help treat people with obesity and diabetes.
Stocks of companies in the oil-and-gas industry also rallied after the price of crude rose to recover some of its sharp losses taken this month. FANG and HAL both did very well.
Technology stocks held firmer after global heavyweight TSMC reported a profit for the latest quarter that matched analysts’ expectations. Perhaps more importantly, it also said it hasn’t seen a drop-off in activity from its customers because of the President’s trade war, as some other companies have suggested.
Still, the company was cautious. “While we have not seen any changes in our customers’ behavior so far, uncertainties and risks from the potential impact from tariff policies exist,” they said.
They helped offset UNH’s drop, its worst since 1998, after it slashed its forecast for financial results this year. It was surprised by how much care its Medicare Advantage customers were getting from doctors and outpatient services, which was above the company’s expectations.
Another high-profile stock, NVDA, once again weighed on the market after sinking a second straight day following its disclosure that new export limits on chips to China could hurt its first-quarter results by $5.5 billion. It was the second-heaviest weight on the S&P.
Uncertainty still remains high about tariffs, which Trump wants to bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States and trim how much more it imports than it exports. Economists worry that the tariffs could cause a recession if fully implemented and left in place for a while.
Trump on Thursday offered some encouraging signals that negotiations with other countries could lead to lower tariffs, which is what investors are hoping for.
The uncertainty about what will happen in Trump’s on-again-off-again rollout of tariffs, though, could damage the economy by itself. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell helped send stocks lower Wednesday when he re-iterated that Trump’s tariffs appear to be larger than the central bank was expecting, which could in turn slow the economy and raise inflation more than it had earlier thought.
That could set up a dilemma for the Fed. It could cut interest rates to help the economy, but that would also push inflation higher. It has no good tool to fix both at the same time. Powell said again on Wednesday that the Fed would wait to see how conditions play out more before moving on interest rates.
Trump criticized that position Thursday, saying the Fed is “always TOO LATE AND WRONG.” He also said, “Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!”
That could spook the markets as an independent Fed able to act without influence from the White House is one of the primary reasons the United States has benefited from its reputation as a safe place to invest. History suggests central banks with more autonomy tend to have economies with lower and more stable inflation.
Research also suggests Trump’s past attacks on the Fed in favor of lower interest rates may have helped drive expectations in financial markets for lower rates, which in turn may have had some influence on the Fed. But conditions are different this time around from when inflation was low during Trump’s first term.
This request for lower rates could backfire if markets perceive that going forward the Fed will be less committed to low and stable inflation.
In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.32% from 4.29% late Wednesday. It had been easing for much of this week, following last week’s scary rise. That sudden climb last week had raised concerns that Trump’s frenetic moves in his trade war may be causing investors worldwide to lose faith in U.S. investments as the world’s safest.
Reports Thursday morning came in mixed on the U.S. economy. One said fewer workers applied for weekly jobless claims last week than economists expected, which were 215K, down 9K from the previous week. That is the latest sign that the job market remains relatively solid. But a second report said manufacturing in the mid-Atlantic region unexpectedly flipped to contraction from growth, down by 32.
In stock markets abroad, indexes slipped 0.6% in France and 0.5% in Germany. The E.C.B. cut its main interest rate for the seventh straight time, which is something that often pushes stock prices higher. But investors worldwide had already been expecting the move for a while.
In Asia, indexes were stronger. Stocks rose 1.6% in Hong Kong and 1.3% in Japan.
This week will see the following earnings releases: Tuesday – Dow components 3M and VZ plus TSLA, DHI, GE; Wednesday – Dow component IBM plus ALK, GEV, NSC, ODFL,NEE, R; Thursday – Dow components MRK and PG, plus GOOG, VLO, XEL, UNP; Friday – SLB.
Economic reports will show: today – March L.E.I; Wednesday – March new home sales; Thursday – weekly jobless claims, March durable goods orders, March existing home sales; Friday – final March U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey.
