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April 22, 2025
Dow: 38,765
S&P: 5237
Nasdaq: 16,149
10-YR T-Note: 4.38%
Bitcoin: 89,550
VIX: 31.69
Gold: $3,448
Crude Oil: 63.71
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
In another downside disaster, at least the market opened lower and just kept dropping until a small rally near the end of the session made the final closes not as bad as they were at the 3:30pm lows. But in any event, it was another distressing disaster as the S&P closed with a 16% decline from its record high two months ago.
Investors kept getting more skeptical about the President’s policies due to Trump’s trade war and his ongoing criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
The Dow ended lower by 972 to 38,170 after having been off by as much as 1,310 at 3pm. Every stock in the index was lower as a few feeble attempts by some consumer staples stocks failed, such as KO and JNJ.
The S&P also showed some little bit of life at the end 124 points lower to 5158 after being lower by 181, and is now 16% below its record low set two months ago and is undergoing its worst April since 1932, and we all remember that one.
The Nasdaq finished 415 points down to 15,870 and also rallied back by 185 from its worst level while the Russell 2000 Index of small stocks got clobbered for 40 down to 1840 and these two are the losers in this awful bear market with declines worse than 20%.
The VIX rose up to 33.82 after being as high as 35.75 on the market’s low around 3pm.
Perhaps more worryingly, U.S. government bonds and the value of the U.S. dollar also sank as prices retreated across U.S. markets. It is an unusual move because Treasurys and the dollar have historically strengthened during episodes of nervousness. This time around, though, it is the policies directly from Washington that are causing the fear and potentially weakening their reputations as some of the world’s safest investments.
Trump continued his tough talk on global trade as economists and investors continue to say his stiff proposed tariffs could cause a recession if they are not rolled back. U.S. talks last week with Japan failed to reach a quick deal that could lower tariffs and protect the economy, and they’re seen as a “test case,” according to one economist.
“The golden rule of negotiating and success: He who has the gold makes the rules,” Trump said in all capitalized letters on his Truth Social Network. He also said that “the businessmen who criticize tariffs are bad at business, but really bad at politics,” likewise in all caps.
Trump has recently focused more on China, the world’s second-largest economy, which has also been keeping up its rhetoric. China on Monday warned other countries against making trade deals with the United States “at the expense of China’s interest” as Japan, South Korea and others try to negotiate agreements.
“If this happens, China will never accept it and will resolutely take countermeasures in a reciprocal manner,” China’s Commerce Ministry said in a statement.
Also hanging over the market are worries about Trump’s anger at Fed Chair Powell and he criticized the Chair for not cutting interest rates sooner to give the economy more juice.
The Fed has been resistant to lowering rates too quickly because it does not want to allow inflation to reaccelerate after slowing nearly all the way down to its 2% goal from more than 9% three years ago.
Trump talked yesterday about a slowdown for the U.S. economy that could be coming unless “Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOW.”
A move by Trump to fire Powell would likely send a bolt of fear through financial markets. While investors love lower rates, largely because they boost stock prices, the bigger worry would be that a less independent Fed would be less effective at keeping inflation under control. Such a move could further weaken, if not kill, the United States’ reputation as the world’s safest place to keep cash.
All the uncertainty striking pillars at the center of financial markets means some investors say they are having to rethink the fundamentals of how to invest.
“We can no longer extrapolate from past trends or rely on long-term assumptions to anchor portfolios,” said strategists at a major house. “The distinction between tactical and strategic asset allocation is blurred. Instead, we need to constantly reassess the long-term trajectory and be dynamic with asset allocation as we learn more about the future state of the global system.”
That in turn could push investors outside the United States to keep more of their money in their home markets.
Big Tech stocks helped lead indexes lower ahead of their latest earnings reports due this week.
TSLA got clobbered once again, as the electric vehicle maker’s stock has more than halved from its record set in December on criticism that the stock price had gone too high and that CEO Elon Musk’s role in leading the U.S. government’s efforts to cut spending is damaging the brand.
In another downside disaster, NVDA fell 4.5% for a third straight drop after disclosing that U.S. export limits on chips to China could hurt its first-quarter results by $5.5 billion.
They led to another wipeout as 92% of the stocks within the S&P fell.
Among the few gainers were DFS and COF, which climbed after the U.S. government approved their proposed merger.
Gold climbed to another record high to over $3,400 to safeguard its reputation as a safe-haven investment, unlike some others.
In the bond market, shorter-term Treasury yields fell as investors expect the Fed to cut its main overnight interest rate later this year to support the economy.
But longer-term yields rose with doubts about the U.S. standing in the global economy. The yield on the 10-year Treasury climbed to 4.40%, up from 4.34% at the end of last week and from just about 4% earlier this month. That’s a substantial move for the bond market.
The U.S. dollar’s value, meanwhile, fell against the euro, Japanese yen, the Swiss franc and other currencies.
This week will see the following earnings releases: today - Dow component 3M higher and VZ lower plus GE higher; tonight - TSLA, DHI; Wednesday – Dow component IBM plus ALK, GEV, NSC, ODFL,NEE, R; Thursday – Dow components MRK and PG, plus GOOG, VLO, XEL, UNP; Friday – SLB.
Economic reports will show: yesterday March L.E.I fell by 0.7% and was lower for the 36th time out of the past 39 months; Wednesday – March new home sales; Thursday – weekly jobless claims, March durable goods orders, March existing home sales; Friday – final March U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey.
