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April 24, 2025
Dow: 39,857
S&P: 5445
Nasdaq: 17,300
10-YR T-Note: 4.33%
Bitcoin: 92,500
VIX: 28
Gold: $3,350
Crude Oil: 63
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
U.S. stocks mostly rose yesterday after the President appeared to back off his criticism of the Federal Reserve and his tough talk about this trade war. He is finally learning that his prior antagonistic rhetoric toward these two items has resulted in steep market meltdowns up until Monday when he finally started to ease back.
The Dow made a nice gain of 419 to 39,606 but could not hold its best levels, which were up by more than twice this amount. The S&P ended up at 88 to 5375 but could also not hold its best intraday levels as well which were 40 points higher than the close. The Nasdaq advanced by 407 to 16,708 but also fell back by almost 200 points from its high.
The Russell 2000 Index of small stock gained 28 to 1919on some strength in the financials 500 while the VIX continued its recent decline with a close down to 28.45.
Gains here followed strong moves higher for stocks across much of Europe and Asia. They also continued a dizzying, up-and-down run for financial markets as investors struggle with how to react to so much uncertainty about what Trump will do with his economic policies.
The market’s latest move was up in part because Trump said late Tuesday that he has “no intention” to fire Fed Chair Powell as he had been angry with the Chair whom Trump had called “a major loser,” because of the Fed’s resistance to cut interest rates.
Trump’s tough talk had frightened investors because the Fed is supposed to act independently, without pressure from politicians, so that it can make decisions that may be painful in the short term but are best for the long term.
While a cut to interest rates by the Fed could give the economy a boost, it could also put upward pressure on inflation. Economists say Trump’s tariffs are likely both to slow the economy and to raise inflation, at least briefly.
Trump may have recognized the market’s fear about a move against Powell. He may also be looking to keep someone around whom Trump could blame later if the economy does fall into a recession, according one observer who said that “Indeed, if the Fed cuts its policy interest rates aggressively, Trump would have little excuse for a recession apart from the pugnacity of his tariff policies,” was the related comment by this person.
Markets also rose after Trump said late Tuesday that U.S. tariffs on imports coming from China could come down “substantially” from the current 145%. “It won’t be that high, not going to be that high,” Trump said.
The hope has been that Trump would lower his tariffs after negotiating trade deals with other countries, and Trump said Tuesday he would be “very nice” to the world’s second-largest economy and not play hardball with Chinese President Xi.
“There is an opportunity for a big deal here,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said yesterday.
If Trump brings his tariffs down enough, investors believe a recession could be averted.
U.S. businesses say they are already feeling the effects of the trade war. A preliminary reading of U.S. business activity fell to a 16-month low, as the threat of tariffs helped push up prices charged for goods and services, according to S&P Global’s latest survey released Wednesday.
All the uncertainty means one of the few predictions that many are willing to make is that sharp swings for financial markets will continue for a while. The market will more likely than not continue to be dictated by Trump’s latest whims regarding tariffs and trade.
The S&P 500 remains 12.5% below its record set earlier this year after briefly dropping roughly 20% below the mark. Its swings have been coming not just day to day but also hour to hour as Trump and his administration’s officials continue to surprise markets. On Wednesday alone, the S&P charged to a 3.4% gain in the morning, only to lose a lot of that rise as the day progressed.
Trump’s latest comments had a relaxing effect on the bond market, where Treasury yields eased. It was a turnaround from earlier this month, when spiking Treasury yields raised fears that Trump’s actions were scaring investors away from the United States and weakening the U.S. bond market’s reputation as one of the safest places to keep cash.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.38% from 4.41% late Tuesday. It dropped as low as 4.26% earlier in the morning.
Some of the old-time tech leaders did better as NVDA gained to claw back more of the sharp losses it took last week, when it said U.S. restrictions on exports of its H20 chips to China could hurt its first-quarter results by $5.5 billion. The chip company’s stock was the strongest single force lifting the S&P.
Other stocks in the artificial-intelligence technology ecosystem also drove higher. VRT, which traces its roots to the industry’s first manufacturer of computer room air conditioning, jumped 8.5% after reporting stronger profit and revenue for the latest quarter than analysts expected. It said it is continuing to see accelerated demand from AI data centers.
Others in this area that did well were SMCI. a company that makes servers used in AI, rose as did PLTR, which offers an AI platform for customers.
TSLA moved up after CEO Elon Musk said that he will spend less time in Washington and more time running his electric vehicle company after it reported a big drop in profits. It has been struggling because of backlash against Musk’s efforts to lead cost-cutting efforts by the U.S. government.
In stock markets abroad, indexes jumped 2.1% in France, 2.4% in Hong Kong and 1.9% in Japan. Stocks in Shanghai were an exception, where they dipped 0.1%.
This week will see the following earnings releases: yesterday – Dow component 3M higher, in addition to GE, PHM, EFX while NOC, NTX, LMB were lower; yesterday – Dow component BA plus TSLA, GEV, DHI, ODFL, NEE, R, VRT, COF higher and ENPH lower; today - Dow components IBM, MRK and PG lower in addition to LUV, CMG, CMCSA, AAL, VLO, XEL, PEP while TXN, LRCX, WHR, NOW, BMY are higher; tonight - GOOG, UNP; Friday – SLB.
Economic reports will show: yesterday - March new home sales rose by 7.4%; today – weekly jobless claims came in at 222K, March durable goods orders rose by 9.2% but ex-transportation were unchanged, March existing home sales fell by 5.9% which was the lowest since 2009; Friday – final March U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey.
