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April 28, 2025
Dow: 40,395
S&P: 5500
Nasdaq: 17,400
10-YR T-Note: 4.28%
Bitcoin: 95,400
VIX: 25.1
Gold: $3,309
Crude Oil: 62.95
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
The past four very strong higher days after a disastrous start to the week seemed like a replay of the earlier days of the rally before things came apart, in the sense that the formerly loved big tech stocks led the way once again, even as the rest of the market did not do so well.
As a result, the Dow ended with a modest gain of 20 to 40,113 as some of the old-time consumer stocks eased back again, such as AXP, SHW, HON and UNH.
The S&P did well again on the strength of the technology group with a 40 point gain to 5525 which brings it back to a 10.1% decline from its high after hitting intraday a 20% drop on the bottom, while the Nasdaq was the big winner with a 216 point advance to 17,382 as TSLA did really well this week, META is starting to regain strength ahead of its report, NVDA is also showing some strength, MSFT is another one that is starting to pick up and GOOG did better on its earnings report.
The Russell 2000 Index of small stocks did nothing at 1957 while the VIX dropped all the way back to 24.84 from as high as 60 on the recent lows in the indices.
The market swung this week from fear to relief with the obsession over President Trump’s trade war.
GOOG climbed in its first trading after Google’s parent company reported late Thursday that its profit gained 50% to start the year, more than, more than analysts expected.
Alphabet is one of the biggest companies in terms of size, and that gives its stock’s movements extra influence on the S&P and other indexes. As mentioned, another market heavyweight, NVDA, was also a major force pushing the S&P index upward.
They helped offset a 7% drop for old-timer INTC, which fell even though its results for the beginning of the year also topped expectations. The chip company said it is seeing “elevated uncertainty across the industry” and gave a forecast for upcoming revenue and profit that fell short of analysts’ expectations.
It wasn’t just INTC as 60% of stocks in the S&P sank, including EMN, which dropped 6% after it gave a forecast for profit this spring that fell short of analysts’ expectations.
Its C.E.O. said that the “macroeconomic uncertainty that defined the last several years has only increased” and that future demand for its products “is unclear given the magnitude and scope of tariffs.”
Skechers U.S.A., the shoe and apparel company, pulled its financial forecasts for the year due to “macroeconomic uncertainty stemming from global trade policies” even though it just reported a record quarter of revenue at $2.41 billion, but its stock fell nevertheless.
Companies across industries have increasingly been saying that the uncertainty created by Trump’s tariffs is making it difficult to give financial forecasts for the upcoming year.
The hope is that if Trump rolls back some of his stiff tariffs, he could avert a recession that many investors see as otherwise likely because of his trade war.
But Trump’s on-again-off-again tariffs may nevertheless be pushing households and businesses to alter their spending and freeze plans for long-term investment because of how quickly conditions can change, sometimes seemingly by the hour.
“Business owners scrambling to figure out their supply chains and exposure to tariffs is more than just a distraction,” said one observer, “It could be an existential threat, especially for smaller businesses that don’t have the scale or resources to have the same supply chain flexibility as larger firms.”
In the bond market, Treasury yields eased some more, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.25% from 4.32% late Thursday.
Yields have been generally falling since approaching 4.50% earlier this month in a surprising rise that suggested investors worldwide may have been losing faith in the U.S. bond market’s reputation as a safe place to park cash.
Yields have dropped as several reports on the U.S. economy have come in weaker than expected, bolstering expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates later this year to support growth.
A report on Friday morning said sentiment among U.S. consumers sank in April, though not by as much as economists expected. The survey from the University of Michigan said its measure of expectations for coming conditions has dropped 32% since January for the steepest three-month percentage decline seen since the 1990 recession.
The value of the U.S. dollar meanwhile held steady against the euro and other rival currencies. It has recovered some of its sharp, unexpected losses from earlier this month that had rattled investors.
