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April 29, 2025
Dow: 40,425
S&P: 5541
Nasdaq: 17,406
10-YR T-Note: 4.20%
Bitcoin: 95,200
VIX: 24.1
Gold: $3,325
Crude Oil: 60.84
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
In another very volatile intraday situation, the major indices went all over the place in both directions before ending mostly nominally higher.
The Dow began with a strong 300 point gain which then turned into a 244 point loss in the early afternoon before making another strong upside run to end with a closing gain of 114 to 40,227. It was helped by advances in AMGN, BA, IBM and V ahead of its report today.
The S&P followed a similar pattern with an opening advance of 36, which then became a large decline of 57 also in the early afternoon which then ended with a late upside rush to finish 3 points higher to 5528 for a fifth straight advance. It was led by advances in AAPL, PLTR which is in its own bull market and NFLX, also in its own bull market as well.
And the question here is – why do these swings in both directions take place during the day, as there were no earnings movers or economic statistics which will appear later in the week?
The Nasdaq also started higher with a 38 point advance which then became a 250 point downside shellacking and this also improved into the close with a final decline of 16 to 17,365 and it was hurt by losses in NVDA and also in AMZN ahead of its report on Thursday.
The Russell 2000 Index of small stocks got dragged higher by 8 to 1965 and the VIX actually had the nerve to end higher despite the late comeback in the Dow and S&P, and it ended at 25.15.
If this pattern presented itself on a day when nothing really went on, then there could be some really violent swings on days when the news is sharper, starting with tomorrow in both earnings and economic reports (see below). The relative lull in trading offered a respite from the sharp, historic swings that have rocked markets for weeks, as hopes rose and fell that President Trump may back down on his trade war.
Many investors believe Trump’s tariffs could cause a recession if left unaltered. Coming into Monday, the S&P had roughly halved its drop that had taken it nearly 20% below its record set earlier this year.
Several companies across industries have already slashed their estimates for upcoming profit or pulled their forecasts entirely because of uncertainty about what will happen with Trump’s tariffs.
“We heard more plans to mitigate tariff impacts than in prior months than during 2018” from U.S. companies, including pre-ordering, shifting production and increasing prices for their own products, and also said in a report that there is some indications of a pause: no hiring/no firing, no new projects/no cancellations, according to one observer.
A fear is that Trump’s on-again-off-again tariffs may be pushing households and businesses to alter their spending and freeze plans for long-term investment because of how quickly conditions can change, seemingly by the hour.
So far, economic reports have mostly seemed to show the U.S. economy is still growing, though at a weaker pace. On Wednesday, economists expect a report to show that U.S. economic growth slowed to an 0.8% annual rate in the first three months of this year, down from a 2.4% to end 2024.
But most reports Wall Street has received so far have focused on data from before Trump’s “Liberation Day” on April 2, when he announced tariffs that could affect imports from countries worldwide. That could raise the stakes for upcoming reports on the U.S. job market, including Friday’s, which will show how many workers employers hired during all of April. Economists expect it to show a slowdown in hiring down to 125,000 from 228,000 in March.
The most jarring economic data recently have come from surveys showing U.S. consumers are getting much more pessimistic about the economy’s future because of tariffs. The Conference Board’s latest reading on consumer confidence will arrive today and it showed xxx.
In the bond market, Treasury yields fell some more. They have largely been sinking since an unsettling, unusual spurt higher in yields earlier this month rattled both investors and the U.S. government. That rise had suggested investors worldwide may have been losing faith in the U.S. bond market’s reputation as a safe place to park cash.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.21% from 4.29% late Friday. It has been pulling back recently as weaker-than-expected reports on the economy bolster expectations among investors that the Federal Reserve will deliver cuts to interest rates later this year.
The earnings calendar really starts to pick up with: yesterday – DPZ ended higher after being lower for most of the day; today – NUE, NXPI, CDNS, REGN, MO, GM, PYPL, EAT, SPOT lower and Dow components KO, SHW, HON higher; tonight - KHC, SNAP, SBUX and Dow component V.
Economic reports will show: March trade balance reached $162 billion, April Consumer Confidence dropped to 86, the lowest since 2020, but other aspects of the report were better, March JOLTS jobs openings fell to 7.19 million, the lowest in three years.
