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April 30, 2025
Dow: 39,900
S&P: 5458
Nasdaq: 17,406
10-YR T-Note: 4.18%
Bitcoin: 93,330
VIX: 27.48
Gold: $3,310
Crude Oil: 59.58
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
On the next to last day of the fourth month of the year, the market started mostly lower and then put in another positive intraday performance to end higher for the sixth straight session.
Things started out lower in the S&P and Nasdaq after a comment from the White House press secretary who said that AMZN briefly dropped after a report from Punchbowl News that the e-commerce giant would begin by listing how much of an item’s price represents the added cost of tariffs. She called the move a “hostile and political act.”
Then a company spokesperson said in a statement that the move “was never a consideration for the main AMZN site and nothing has been implemented on any AMZN properties.”
Then the upset President called Jeff Bezos after learnings that the company considered breaking out a tariff charge and then he said it was a “good call.” And said that Bezos was very nice. He was terrific,” “He solved the problem very quickly. Good guy.”
After all of that brief drama, the Dow rallied 300 points to 40,527 led by AMGN, SHW and HON on earnings, IBM and V. The S&P got rocked lower to start on those AMZN comments to lose 23 points but it also rallied as the day moved on and ended with a 32 point gain to 5560 on strength in AAPL, META and MSFT ahead of their earnings tonight and NFLX which has now rallied 11 days in a row.
The Nasdaq also got rocked on the opening on the AMZN comments for 110 points but it also moved higher from there and gained 95 to 17,461 on additional strength in TSLA, MSTR, NOW and BKNG.
The Russell 2000 Index of small stocks got dragged 11 points higher to 1976 while the VIX continues to get dragged lower on equity strength and ended at 24.17.
To give a perspective as to what the market has done after the first 100 days of any presidential term, it just put in its worst first 100 days of any presidential term since President Gerald Ford assumed office in 1974.
The stock market initially surged higher after Trump’s re-election in November on expectations for a pro-business boom. Yet 100 days into Trump’s second term, the market has been shaken by historic levels of uncertainty and volatility because of tariffs.
But the S&P is still down by 7.27% since Trump’s inauguration on January 20th. The benchmark index has shed $3.66 trillion in market value since Trump was inaugurated.
Markets extended their gains Tuesday afternoon as Commerce Secretary Lutnick said that he had a trade deal done, though he declined to name the country.
The S&P’s performance so far during Trump’s second term has been the third-worst performance during the first 100 days of any presidential term in US history, following only President Richard Nixon and Ford.
The stock market has been on a rollercoaster this year, whipsawing at the whims of Trump’s back-and-forth decisions on tariff policy.
The S&P hit a record high in February before sliding into correction in March as Trump began to roll out his plan for tariffs. The S&P plummeted in early April after Trump unveiled his so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs, hitting its lowest point of the year on April 8th, when it was on the cusp of entering a bear market.
The market has regained some ground since but the S&P is still down 1.94% from where it was before Trump unveiled his “reciprocal” tariffs on April 2nd.
“I don’t remember a time when a policy was so directly aimed at economic outcomes, where it was received so negatively, universally by the investment community,” said one observer. “It is the most uncertainty I think we’ve seen around corporate earnings and growth in sometime, all self-inflicted by the administration.”
The Magnificent Seven tech stocks, which boosted the market to record highs in 2024, have broadly slumped this year. AAPL is down15.6% this year. NVDA is off by 18.8% while TSLA is lower by 27.7%.
The best performers in the market this year have been tobacco and gold, as NEM is up 42.3% this year. PM, the tobacco giant, is up 41.4%.
Meanwhile, AI and tech company PLTR) has soared 53.5% this year, making it the best-performing stock in the S&P after gaining about 340% in 2024.
The Nasdaq, which entered a bear market on April 4th, is down 11% since Trump’s inauguration. The Dow is down 6.8% since the same time.
While stocks have been volatile, US Treasuries have emerged as a notable loser in Trump’s first 100 days in office.
Typically, when investors sell off stocks in times of uncertainty, they park their cash in US Treasuries, seeking the safety of an asset backed by the full faith and credit of the US government.
Yet as stocks declined around the world in early April, investors abruptly sold off U.S. Treasuries, raising questions about how much they value US government bonds as a haven.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note has come down to 4.176% since spiking in early April, but the recent volatility has unnerved investors.
A decline in the dollar this year has sparked debates about the stability and preeminence of US financial markets.
The US dollar index, which measures the dollar’s strength against six foreign currencies, has tumbled more than 8% this year as the dollar index on April 21st hit its lowest level in three years.
After Trump’s election in November, the dollar pushed higher on expectations for economic growth. The swift decline in the dollar has raised questions about investors’ confidence in the United States, as the Euro has gained more than 9% against the dollar this year.
Some winners across Trump’s first 100 days have been stocks overseas, which have been buoyed by investors reconsidering their allocations to US assets.
Germany’s DAX index is up 12.6% this year. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index is up 9.7% this year.
Gold has emerged as the champion of Trump’s first 100 days.
The yellow metal has soared about 26% this year, smashing through record highs and briefly surpassing $3,500 a troy ounce.
Investors have flocked to gold as a safe haven given the uncertain outlook of Trump’s tariffs and the US-China trade war. Bullion is historically a haven during times of economic and geopolitical uncertainty.
The most crowded trade in April was gold, according to a bank survey, and this broke a two-year streak for the Magnificent Seven tech stocks.
The earnings calendar really starts to pick up with: yesterday - NUE, NXPI, CDNS, REGN, MO, GM, PYPL, EAT, SPOT lower and Dow components KO, SHW, HON higher plus UPS, SOFI, today - SNAP, SBUX, BKNG, SMCI, OKE, EIX, DMCI, Dow component V lower and Dow component CAT in addition to STX, WTC higher; tonight - MET, EBAY, YUM and the two big ones Dow component MSFT plus META.
Economic reports will show: yesterday - March trade balance reached $162 billion, April Consumer Confidence dropped to 86, the lowest since 2020, but other aspects of the report were better, March JOLTS jobs openings fell to 7.19 million, the lowest in three years; today - first look at 1Q estimate of G.D.P. unfortunately came in lower at negative -0.3%, March P.C.E. was unchanged as was the core rate excluding food and energy and up by 2.6% year over year, March pending home sales up by 6.1% and March personal income up by 0.5% and personal spending higher by 0.7%.
