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July 1, 2025
Dow: 44,296
S&P: 6201
Nasdaq: 20,336
10-YR T-Note: 4.25%
Bitcoin: 106,515
VIX: 17.28
Gold: $3,360
Crude Oil: 65.65
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
So what else is new, as the market ended the first half of the year with another strong showing with the S&P and Nasdaq continuing to push into further record closes as the market closed out a second straight winning month.
The Dow added 275 to 44,095 led by AAPL, of all things, in addition to CAT, HON, IBM, GS and JPM at new records themselves and V. The S&P gained 32 to 6205 led by most of the technology leaders plus financials to complete its upside recovery from the springtime selloff of almost 20%.
The Nasdaq furthered its record close by 96 to 2,370 while the Russell 2000 Index of small stocks added 2 to 2175.
So after all is said and done, the markets are up by 4%, 5% and 6% for the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq so far this year, with the best quarter since 2023’s 4Q and the Nasdaq’s best quarter since the 4Q of 2020.
The VIX, for some strange reason, started out with an upside jump to 17.43 before easing back down to a nominal gain at 16.73.
Stocks got a jump when Canada said that it is rescinding a planned tax on U.S. technology firms and resuming talks on trade with the United States. On Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump had said he was suspending talks with that country because of his anger with the tax, which he called “a direct and blatant attack on our country.”
One of the main reasons U.S. stocks came back so quickly from their springtime swoon has been hope that Trump will reach deals with other countries to lower his stiff proposed tariffs. Otherwise, the fear is that trade wars could stifle the economy and send inflation higher.
Many of Trump’s announced tariffs are currently on pause, and they are scheduled to come back into effect in a little more than a week.
ORCL gained after its C.E.O. said that the tech giant “is off to a strong start” in its fiscal year and that it signed multiple large cloud services agreements, including one that could contribute over $30 billion in annual revenue two fiscal years from now.
GMS stock gained after the supplier of specialty building products said it agreed to sell itself to a HD subsidiary in a deal that would pay $110.00 per share in cash. That would give it a total value of roughly $5.5 billion, including debt.
HPE gained as did JNPR after saying they had reached an agreement with the U.S. Department of Justice that could allow their merger to go through, subject to court approval. The former is trying to buy the latter in a $14 billion deal.
Bank stocks were also strong after the Federal Reserve said on Friday that they are financially strong enough to survive a downturn in the economy, with JPM and GS hitting new highs once again.
The job market has remained relatively steady recently, even in the face of tariffs, but hiring has slowed. Economists expect Thursday’s data to show another drop in overall hiring, down to 115,000 jobs in June from 139,000 in May.
Such data has helped keep the Federal Reserve on hold this year when it comes to interest rates. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said repeatedly that it is waiting for more data to show how tariffs will affect the economy and inflation before resuming its cuts to interest rates.
Trump, meanwhile, has been pushing for more cuts to rates and for them to happen soon. Two of his appointees to the Fed have said recently they could consider cutting rates as soon as the Fed’s next meeting at the end of July.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.23% from 4.29% late Friday.
Earnings this week will see: tonight – CEG.
Economic reports will have: today – May construction spending down by 0.3%, May JOLTS report came in higher at 7.7 million, ISM May Manufacturing Index was 49, SPX global manufacturing grew to 52.9; Thursday – weekly jobless claims, May factory orders, June non-farms payroll reports for which the estimate is 110,00 and the unemployment rate is 4.3%. Job growth this year has averaged 123,800 compared to 191,900 the previous two years.
