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July 10, 2025
Dow: 44,582
S&P: 6262
Nasdaq: 20,543
10-YR T-Note: 4.35%
Bitcoin: 110,870
VIX: 15.95
Gold: $3,333
Crude Oil: 66.87
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
A rally in big tech stocks led the broader market to a higher close yesterday, lifting the Nasdaq to an all-time high and helping the market regain most of its losses from earlier in the week.
The Dow rose by 217 to 44,458 led by NVDA at close to four trillion worth and by MSFT, the SPX did very well at 37 points to 6263, just short of its record while the Nasdaq was the day’s hero with a 192 point gain to 20,611 led by the above-two plus other semiconductors like INTC, ADI plus AMZN, META and VRNA.
The Russell 2000 Index of small stocks came along for the upside ride with a 24 point gain to 2252 while the VIX continued to decline down to a very low level of 15.94 and the question is now – how much further down is this one supposed to go before some kind of correction sets in to an overbought market?
NVDA became the first public company to exceed four trillion in value after its share price briefly topped $164 each in the early going. Shares in the AI boom poster child were going for around $14 per share at the start of 2023.
The tech rally came as the market continued to weigh the latest developments in the President’s renewed push this week to use threats of higher tariffs on goods imported into the U.S. in hopes of securing new trade agreements with countries around the globe.
Wednesday was initially set as a deadline by Trump for countries to make deals with the U.S. or face heavy increases in tariffs. But with just only two trade deals announced since April, one with the United Kingdom and one with Vietnam, the window for negotiations has been extended to August 1st.
This latest phase in the White House’s trade war heightens the threat of potentially more severe tariffs that have been hanging over the global economy. Higher taxes on imported goods could hinder economic growth, if not increase recession risks.
On Tuesday, Trump said he would be announcing tariffs on pharmaceutical drugs at a “very, very high rate, like 200%.” He also said he would sign an executive order placing a 50% tariff on copper imports, matching the rates charged on steel and aluminum. Copper prices eased Wednesday after spiking a day earlier.
Analysts predict that companies in the S&P will deliver a combined 5% annual growth in second-quarter earnings, according to FactSet. That would mark the lowest growth rate for the index since the fourth quarter of 2023.
DAL starts off earnings season today, with most analysts expecting the airline’s second-quarter profit to decline from a year ago. Most major carriers have trimmed their flight schedules and decreased their forecasts this year as consumers pull back on travel and other nonessential spending due to uncertainty about how Trump’s tariffs will affect their budgets.
In bond market trading, the yield on the 10-year Treasury slid to 4.34% from 4.40% late Tuesday. The minutes from the last Fed meeting showed continued reluctance to do anything late this month as there is the perception that the committee wants to see what effects the tariff plans have on inflation and economic growth at that time.
Dow component MRK is buying VRNA, a U.K. company that focuses on respiratory diseases, in an approximately $10 billion deal. If approved by Verona shareholders and U.K. officials, MRK will get access to Verona’s chronic obstructive pulmonary disease medication Ohtuvayre.
Earnings this week will see: yesterday - WPP lower and AZZ higher; today – DAL higher and HELE lower; Friday – CAG, WD-40.
Economic reports will have: yesterday - minutes from the last F.O.M.C. meeting (see above); today – weekly jobless claims were 227,000.
