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July 7, 2025
Dow: 44,600
S&P: 6249
Nasdaq: 20,473
10-YR T-Note: 4.37%
Bitcoin: 108,040
VIX: 17.65
Gold: $3,321
Crude Oil: 67.22
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
U.S. stocks climbed further into records on Thursday after a report showed the U.S. job market looks stronger than expected.
The S&P 500 rose 0.8% and set an all-time high for the fourth time in five days, with a gain of 52 points up to 6,279 led by the large technology stocks and the financials once again. July has been the best performing month over the past 20 years, with a 2.8% average advance.
Yet there was some underlying factors that should have taken away some of the enthusiasm such as private businesses adding only 74,000 jobs, which was well short of the 100,000 that were predicted, as the big boost came from education jobs, which gained 63,000.
In addition, the workforce contracted by 130,000, which lowered the participation rate to 62.3%, below the recent average of 63%
The Nasdaq also set a record with a 208 point advance to 20,601 led by the large techs including NVDA at a new high and DDOG which is getting added to the S&P. This index had been higher in July for 16 straight years before a nominal loss last year.
The Dow added 344 to 44,828 to put it within less than 1% of its record high, while the Russell 2000 Index of small stocks did well based on the financials at a 22 point gain to 2249. And as I have been saying, the VIX continued to decline, now at 16.38 which one would think could finally create enough support to rise from those levels and put at least a temporary halt to the recent upside equity explosion.
The market’s gains were widespread, and companies whose profits can get the biggest boosts when workers are feeling confident helped lead the way.
The reaction was bigger in the bond market following the report from the U.S. government, which said employers added 147,000 more jobs to their payrolls last month than they cut. The unexpected acceleration in hiring signals the U.S. job market is holding up despite worries about how the President’s tariffs may hurt the economy and inflation.
The weekly unemployment jobless claims came in lower than expected at 233,000, an indication of easing layoffs.
Yields jumped in the bond market as investors bet the better-than-expected data could keep the Federal Reserve on hold when it comes to interest rates, instead of cutting them like Trump has loudly been calling for.
Traders in the futures market now see less than a 5% chance that the Fed could cut its main interest rate at its next meeting later this month. That is down sharply from the nearly 24% chance they saw just a day earlier, according to data from CME Group.
The Fed’s chair, Jerome Powell, has been insisting that he wants to wait and see how Trump’s tariffs affect the economy and inflation before making its next move. While lower rates give a boost to the economy by making it easier to borrow money, they can also give inflation more fuel. And that could be dangerous if Trump’s tariffs are about to send inflation higher.
Many of Trump’s stiff proposed taxes on imports are currently on pause, but they are scheduled to kick in this week unless Trump reaches deals with other countries to lower them.
Many U.S. companies in the services industries are still saying they are concerned about the impacts of tariffs, even if they returned to growth last month following May’s contraction, according to the most recent survey by the Institute for Supply Management.
“Increased cost from tariffs and the potential for tariffs is impacting cost increases,” one company in the agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting industry said in the survey.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.34% from 4.30% late Wednesday. The two-year Treasury yield, which moves more closely with expectations for the Fed, jumped even more. It climbed to 3.88% from 3.78%.
On the losing side were companies that can feel pain from interest rates staying high.
Homebuilders would like rates to fall in order to make mortgages cheaper to get, for example, and Lennar sank 4%, while D.R. Horton dropped 3%.
Mizuho Bank Ltd. said countries may be receiving letters from Trump stating tariff levels as early last weekend. Countries will have to brace for volatility, it said.
Earnings this week will see: Wednesday – AZZ; Friday – CAG, DAL, WD-40.
Economic reports will have: Thursday – weekly jobless claims.
