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July 8, 2025
Dow: 44,326
S&P: 6227
Nasdaq: 20,435
10-YR T-Note: 4.43%
Bitcoin: 108,886
VIX: 17.01
Gold: $3,338
Crude Oil: 67.88
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
How many times did I warn that the low level of the VIX on last Thursday’s record close put stocks into danger of getting sold off and this is exactly what happened yesterday to start the new week. In addition, we also got the President stepping up pressure on major trading partners to make deals before punishing tariffs imposed by the U.S. take effect.
As a result of all this, the Dow fell by 422 to 44,406 after being lower by as much as 668 on the afternoon low. The S&P fell by 49 down to 6230 after having been off by 78 at its worst level. This was its largest loss since mid-June. The Nasdaq fell by 188 to 20,412 after getting sold off by as much as 278.
The Russell 2000 Index of small stocks came down by a large 35 points to 2,214 while the VIX moved up from those low levels to end higher at 17.79.
The losses were widespread as decliners outnumbered gainers by nearly 4-to-1.
TSLA got whacked lower by 7% for the biggest drop among S&P stocks as the disputes between C. E.O. Elon Musk and the President reignited over the weekend. Musk, once a top donor and ally of Trump, said he would form a third political party in protest over the Republican spending bill that passed last week.
The selling accelerated after the Trump administration issued letters informing Japan and South Korea that their goods will be taxed at 25% starting on August 1st, citing persistent trade imbalances with the two crucial U.S. allies in Asia.
“If for any reason you decide to raise your Tariffs, then, whatever the number you choose to raise them by, will be added onto the 25% that we charge,” Trump wrote in the letters to the heads of these two countries.
In addition, Trump also announced new tariff rates on Malaysia, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Laos and Myanmar.
Just before hefty U.S. tariffs on goods imported from nearly every country around the globe were to take effect in April, Trump postponed the levies for 90 days in hopes that foreign governments would be more willing to strike new trade deals. That 90-day negotiating period was set to expire before Wednesday.
On Sunday, Trump said he would impose an additional 10% in tariffs against the BRICS bloc of developing nations, which had condemned tariffs increases at its summit in Brazil. In addition to Brazil, the BRICS countries also include Russia, India, China and South Africa.
This latest phase in the trade war heightens the threat of potentially more severe tariffs that have been hanging over the global economy. Higher taxes on imported goods could hinder economic growth, if not increase recession risks.
The near-term outlook will likely hinge on several key factors like the extent to which trading partners are included in Trump letters, the rate of tariffs, and the effective date of such tariffs, according to analysts.
Last week, the Trump administration announced that it reached a deal with Vietnam that would allow U.S. goods to enter the country duty-free, while Vietnamese exports to the U.S. would face a 20% levy. That was a decline from the 46% tax on Vietnamese imports he proposed in April.
MOH fell after the insurer lowered its profit guidance due to rapidly accelerating costs.
In deal news, software company CRWV agreed to acquire cryptocurrency mining company CORZ in an all-stock transaction valued at about $9 billion. Both companies’ stocks fell as a result.
Bond yields mostly rose. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.39% from 4.34% late Thursday.
Oil prices fluctuated after OPEC+ agreed on Saturday to raise production in August by 548,000 barrels per day.
U.S. benchmark crude settled 1.4% higher at $67.93 per barrel, while Brent crude, the international standard, rose 1.9% to settle at $69.58 per barrel.
The Fed’s chair, Jerome Powell, has been insisting that the central bank wants to wait and see how Trump’s tariffs affect the economy and inflation before making its next move on interest rates. While lower rates give a boost to the economy by making it easier to borrow money, they can also give inflation more fuel. That could be dangerous if the Trump administration’s tariffs send inflation higher.
Earnings this week will see: yesterday – MOH; Wednesday – AZZ; Friday – CAG, DAL, WD-40.
Economic reports will have: Wednesday – minutes from the last F.O.M.C. meeting; Thursday – weekly jobless claims.
