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July 9, 2025
Dow: 44,326
S&P: 6244
Nasdaq: 20,540
10-YR T-Note: 4.38%
Bitcoin: 109,500
VIX: 16.32
Gold: $3,306
Crude Oil: 67.78
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
The market ended mixed to lower yesterday as the Trump administration pressed its campaign to win more favorable trade deals with nations around the globe by leaning into tariffs on goods coming into the U.S.
The Dow was the weak link with a decline of 165 to 44, 241 hurt by selling in the financials, which have been strong this year, as AXP, GS and JPM sold off. The S&P slipped by 4 to 6225 after posting its biggest loss since mid-June. It was helped by a new high in NVDA and strength in energy stocks ahead of the OPEC meeting.
The Nasdaq gained 6 to 20,418 led by strength in AMD, MU, ADI and META as the semiconductors did well while the Russell 2000 Index of small stocks showed a gain of 14 to 2229. And once again the VIX fell to 16.81, which means that it can go higher from here, putting the market in danger once again.
The sluggish trading came as the market was coming off a broad sell-off following the Trump administration’s decision to impose new import tariffs set to go into effect next month on more than a dozen nations.
Still, the modest pullback in the markets is a sign that investors may be betting that the U.S. and its trading partners may eventually negotiate deals that will reduce or eliminate the need for punishing tariffs.
On Monday, the President set a 25% tax on goods imported from Japan and South Korea and new tariff rates on a dozen other nations scheduled to go into effect on August 1st.
Trump provided notice by posting letters on Truth Social that were addressed to the leaders of the various countries. The letters warned them to not retaliate by increasing their own import taxes, or else the Trump administration would further increase tariffs.
Just before hefty U.S. tariffs on goods imported from nearly every country around the globe were to take effect in April, Trump postponed the levies for 90 days in hopes that foreign governments would be more willing to strike new trade deals. That 90-day negotiating period was set to expire before today.
With the tariffs set to kick in now on August 1st, the latest move by the White House amounts to essentially a four-week extension of its previous 90-day pause.
During a cabinet meeting Tuesday, Trump said he would be announcing tariffs on pharmaceutical drugs at a “very, very high rate, like 200%.” He also said he would sign an executive order placing a 50% tariff on copper imports, matching the rates charged on steel and aluminum.
Shares in mining company FCX gained following Trump’s remarks. The price of copper for September delivery jumped 13% to $5.69 per pound.
This latest phase in the trade war heightens the threat of potentially more severe tariffs that’s been hanging over the global economy. Higher taxes on imported goods could hinder economic growth, if not increase recession risks.
AMZN fell as the online retail giant started Prime Day, which beginning this year, lasts four days. The company launched the membership sales event in 2015 and expanded it to two days in 2019.
FSLR slid after Trump issued an executive order ending subsidies for foreign-controlled energy companies.
HSY lost ground after the chocolate maker announced a change in C.E.O. after the current one is retiring.
Government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will now permit lenders to use Vantage scores instead of FICO scores when evaluating homebuyer creditworthiness. The latter previously had a monopoly on credit scoring so the new rule promulgated by the Federal Housing Finance Agency makes switching from FICO to Vantage optional, not mandatory. For its troubles, FICO stock got clobbered for 16%.
Bond yields mostly rose. The yield on the 10-year Treasury edged up to 4.40% from 4.39% late Monday.
The market’s downbeat start to the week follows a strong run for stocks, which pushed further into record highs last week after a better-than-expected non-farm payroll report..
The National Federation of Independent Business reported Tuesday that its small business optimism index fell slightly last month, in line with analysts’ expectations. The index tracks how small firms view the U.S. economy and their business prospects.
At 2pm today, the Federal Reserve will release minutes from its policymaking committee’s meeting last month. The Fed’s chair, Jerome Powell, has said the central bank wants to wait and see how Trump’s tariffs affect the economy and inflation before making its next move on interest rates.
Earnings this week will see: today - WPP lower; tonight - AZZ; Friday – CAG, DAL, WD-40.
Economic reports will have: today - minutes from the last F.O.M.C. meeting; Thursday – weekly jobless claims.
