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June 18, 2025
Dow: 42,381
S&P: 6007
Nasdaq: 19,611
10-YR T-Note: 4.36%
Bitcoin: 104,854
VIX: 20.9
Gold: $3,406
Crude Oil: 74.30
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
After a nice start to the week on Monday, stocks yesterday slumped under the weight of another jump for the price of oil. It was a return to form for financial markets after worries about Israel’s fighting with Iran had seemed to calm a bit the previous day.
The Dow fell by 299 to 42,215 led by selling in AMGN, CAT, SHW, GS and MCD. The S&P lost 50 to 5983 on selling in the tech stocks and financials on signals that the Israel-Iran conflict may be worsening and that one of the U.S. economy’s main engines is weakening.
The Nasdaq got clocked for 180 down to 19,521 on tech weakness as well, along with TSLA, while the Russell 2000 Index of small stocks was weak on declining financials and ended down by 22 to 2102. And the VIX rose to 21.60 on equity weakness.
Stocks sank under increasing pressure from crude oil prices, which climbed in their latest see-saw move. A barrel of benchmark U.S. crude jumped 4.3% to $74.84. Brent crude, the international standard, added 4.4% to $76.45 per barrel.
Their gains accelerated after the President raised the temperature on Israel’s fight with Iran by calling for “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!” on his social media platform and saying, “We are not going to” kill Iran’s leader, “at least for now.”
Before that, Trump had left a G7 summit early and warned that people in Iran’s capital should evacuate immediately. It took only about eight hours for Trump to go from suggesting a nuclear deal with Iran remained “achievable” to urging Tehran’s 9.5 million residents to flee for their lives.
The fighting has the potential to drive up prices for crude oil and gasoline because Iran is a major producer of oil, and it sits on the narrow Strait of Hormuz, through which much of the world’s crude passes. Past conflicts in the area have caused spikes in oil prices, though they have historically proven to be only temporary after showing that they did not disrupt the flow of oil.
Often, higher oil prices can help stocks of companies in the solar industry because they increase the incentive to switch to alternative energy sources. But solar stocks tumbled because of the possibility that Congress may phase out tax credits for solar, , wind and other energy sources that produce fewer emissions that change the Earth’s climate. ENPH fell by 24% while FSLR dropped 18%.
Treasury yields also fell in the bond market after a report said shoppers spent less last month at U.S. retailers than the month before, dropping by .09%. Solid such spending has been one of the reasons keeping the economy out of a recession, but part of May’s drop may have simply been a return to more normal trends.
In April, some shoppers had rushed to buy automobiles to get ahead of Trump’s tariffs.
JBL rose by 9% after reporting a stronger profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected. Their C.E.O. credited strength from accelerated demand related to artificial-intelligence technology, among other things.
VERV soared by 81% after LLY said it would buy the company developing genetic medicines for cardiovascular disease in a $1 billion deal that could be worth up to $1.3 billion if certain conditions are met.
All the action took place as the Federal Reserve began a two-day meeting on interest rates. The nearly unanimous expectation among traders and economists is that the Fed will make no move.
The Fed has been hesitant to lower interest rates, and it has been on hold this year after cutting at the end of last year, because it is waiting to see how much Trump’s tariffs will hurt the economy and raise inflation.
More important for financial markets today will likely be the latest set of forecasts that Fed officials will publish for where they see the economy and interest rates heading in upcoming years.
In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury eased to 4.38% from 4.46% late Monday.
Earnings this week include: yesterday – JBL higher; LZB up a little; Friday – KMX, DRI, KR.
Economic reports will include: yesterday – May retail sales fell by 0.9% and the core retail sales number showed a gain of 0.4%, May import prices rose by 0.2% and year over year were higher by this amount and export prices dropped 0.9% with a 1.7% gain year over year rise, May capacity utilization and industrial production; today – F.O.M.C. decision at which they are expected to do nothing, May housing starts down by 9.8%, weekly jobless claims remained at 245,000; Friday – May L. E..I.
