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June 2, 2025
Dow: 42,075
S&P: 5897
Nasdaq: 19,100
10-YR T-Note: 4.44%
Bitcoin: 104,250
VIX: 19.
Gold: $3,401
Crude Oil: 63.36
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
The market closed the week with a relatively quiet day, although there was huge intraday volatility from mid-day until the close.
For the week and for the month, things did rally from low levels to start the month of May and stocks did get a few huge higher days once tension about the tariffs was eased back. It was the best monthly gain since 2023 and best May in 35 years. The Dow rose by 3.8% and the Nasdaq gained nearly 10%, the largest since November 2023.
The Dow ended higher by 54 points to 42,270 led by gains in AMGN, SHW, UNH and MSFT after a large loss of 309 around 12noon. The S&P ended unchanged at 5912 after a huge decline of 68 points at the same time.
The Nasdaq was the laggard after NVDA was weak after its tremendous upside performance from the day before, in addition to APPL declining once again, in addition to TSLA and others. It ended lower by 62 to 19,113 after being down by 328. The Russell 2000 Index of small stocks was down by 8 to 2066 while the VIX ended down to 18.57 which is dangerous in the sense that how much lower can it go?
There were some earnings reports which affected individual stocks such as GAP which weighed on the market even though the retailer reported stronger profit and revenue for the latest quarter than analysts expected.
The company behind Banana Republic and Old Navy fell 20% after saying tariffs on imports from China and other countries could add up to $300 million to its costs this fiscal year. It has strategies set to mitigate up to half of that before it hits its profits.
This week and month on Wall Street have been dominated by questions about what will happen with Trump’s tariffs, which investors worry could grind the economy into a recession, slash companies’ profits and layer even more challenges on households already sick of inflation.
Hopes had largely been rising that the worst of such worries had passed, which in turn sent stocks rallying, after Trump paused his tariffs on both China and the European Union. A U.S. court on Wednesday blocked many of Trump’s sweeping tariffs. It all sent the S&P in May to its first winning month in four and its best since November.
But the tariffs remain in place for now while the White House appeals the ruling by the U.S. Court of International Trade, and the ultimate outcome is still uncertain.
Trump also briefly shook markets shortly before Wall Street opened for trading Friday, when he accused China of not living up to its end of the agreement that paused their tariffs against each other.
“So much for being Mr. NICE GUY!” Trump said on his Truth Social platform.
He then announced late Friday that he will double its current tariff rate on steel and aluminum imports from 25% to 50%, starting on Wednesday.
He said the move would help boost the local steel industry and national supply, while reducing reliance on China.
Trump also said that $14bn would be invested in the area's steel production through a partnership between US Steel and Japan's Nippon Steel, though he later told reporters he had yet to see or approve the final deal.
Trump has said he’s using tariffs to bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States and that U.S. households and businesses may feel some pain in the process.
Friday’s most influential losses came from several Big Tech stocks, such as NVDA, which gave back some of its gain from earlier in the week after it topped analysts’ expectations for profit in the latest quarter. It was the single heaviest weight by far on the S&P.
ULTA did well after the retailer reported stronger sales and profit than analysts forecast. It also raised the top end of its forecasted range for revenue this fiscal year even though its C.E.O. called the operating environment “fluid.”
COST rose after the retailer’s results and revenue for the latest quarter edged past analysts’ expectations.
RRGB soared 63% after reporting a profit for the latest quarter, when analysts expected a loss. But let it be remembered that this stock was 90 a share back in 2025 to currently around 6.
SNET fell to trim their gain for the week to a still-whopping 1,041.4% after the marketing company said it would raise $425 million to buy the cryptocurrency on the Ethereum blockchain. The company delivers leads to U.S. sportsbooks and global casino companies, and it has been expanding into the global crypto gaming market.
In the bond market, Treasury yields eased after a report showed that the P.C.E. report on inflation that the Fed likes to use was slightly lower at 0.1% in April than economists expected.
A separate report from the University of Michigan said that sentiment among U.S. consumers was better in May at 52.2 than economists expected. Sentiment improved in the back half of the month after Trump paused many of his tariffs on China.
“Overall, consumers see the outlook for the economy as no worse than last month, but they remained quite worried about the future,” according to the director of the Survey.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury eased to 4.39% from 4.43% late Thursday. The two-year Treasury yield, which more closely tracks expectations for what the Fed will do with overnight interest rates, slipped to 3.90% from 3.92%.
The Fed has left its benchmark borrowing rate steady so far this year after cutting it at the end of 2024 to give the economy more breathing room. Fed officials have said they want to wait longer to see how tariffs will affect inflation and the economy before making their next move. While lower interest rates can give the economy a boost, they can also fan inflation higher.
Earnings this week include: today – CPB lower; Tuesday – CRWD, DG, HP; Wednesday – DLTR, FIVE, MBD; Thursday – AVGO, DOCU, VAIL, LULU.
Economic reports will see: today – April construction spending fell by 0.4%, ISM April Manufacturing Survey eased to 48.5; Tuesday – April factory orders, April JOLT survey; Thursday – April trade balance, weekly jobless claims; Friday – May non-farm payroll report for which the current estimate is 123K versus the prior month’s 177,000.
