Daily Market Notes | 5-minute read

June 24, 2024

By Donald Selkin | Chief Market Strategist

DOW: 39,494.42

S&P: 5481.32

Nasdaq: 17,646.21

10YR T-Note: 4.27%

Bitcoin: 60810

VIX: 13.18

Gold: $2341.8

Crude Oil: $81.54

Prices Current as of 11:50 am

Source: CNBC

40+ Years on

Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.

In a relatively calm quadruple witching session for the third Friday of the quarterly expirations (March, June, September, December) the market ended mixed to lower as the only stock that got jacked around near the close was none other than AAPL, which went from being ahead by 1-2 points until the last 15 minutes when it collapsed from those gains to end more than 2 points lower, and what was the reason for this? The other stock that got hammered right into the close was former high-flier AVGO which continued its recent downside miseries with a 28 point drubbing in the final 15 minutes as well.

The Dow went between small gains and losses and ended 15 points higher to 39,150 led by gains in CRM, HD, MCD, MSFT and AMZN. The S&P fell by 8 to 5464 and was hurt by losses in AAPL, NVDA and even META fell but the index did end the week higher for its eighth gain in the last nine weeks. It did set its 31st record close last Tuesday.

The Nasdaq fell by 32 down to 17,689 hurt by the three stocks mentioned as well while the Russell 2000 Index of small stocks gained by 4 to 2022 while the VIX eased back to 13.20 as it remains stuck at the lower end of its recent range.

NVDA again dragged on the market after falling 3.2% for its second straight consecutive decline. The company’s stock has soared more than 1,000% since October 2022 on frenzied demand for its chips, which are powering much of the world’s move into artificial intelligence technology, and it briefly supplanted MSFT last Tuesday as the most valuable company.

But nothing goes up forever, and its decline over the last two days sent its stock to its first losing week in the last nine.

Much of the rest of the market was relatively quiet, outside a few outliers.

SRPT jumped 30% after U.S. regulators approved the use of its medicine for children with Duchenne muscular dystrophy who are at least 4.

Gun maker SWBI tumbled by 13% despite reporting stronger profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected. The summer is traditionally a slower season for firearms, according to its C.E.O.

Shares of DJT rallied back from an early loss and rose 3.4% to trim its loss for the week to 25%. The company behind the Truth Social platform had seen its stock nearly halve since the conviction of the former president in late May.

In the bond market, U.S. Treasury yields initially fell after a report suggested business activity among countries that use the euro currency is weaker than economists expected. Concerns are already there for the continent ahead of a French election that could further rattle financial markets in that part of the world.

The weak business-activity report dragged down yields in Europe, which at first pressured Treasury yields. But U.S. yields recovered much of those losses after another report said later in the morning that U.S. business activity may be stronger than thought.

Overall output growth hit a 26-month high, according to S&P Global’s preliminary reading of activity among U.S. manufacturing and services businesses. Perhaps more importantly, that strength may be happening without a concurrent rise in pressure on inflation.

Hope still reigns among traders that the Fed can pull the so-called “soft landing” off, and many are forecasting two cuts to interest rates later this year, according to data from CME Group. Of course, their predi mistic most of the time.

Fed officials themselves have penciled in one or two cuts in 2024 to their main interest rate, which has been sitting at its highest level in more than two decades. The economy is still growing, though it has slowed recently under the weight of high rates. Housing and manufacturing have been hurt in particular, while lower-income household are struggling to keep up with still-rising prices.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury edged down to 4.25% from 4.26% late Thursday. The yield on the two-year Treasury, which more closely tracks expectations for Fed action, dipped to 4.73% from 4.74%.

In stock markets abroad, European stocks fell after the weak continental economic reports, and many Asian indexes were also lower.

Earnings this week will have: Tuesday – FDX; Wednesday – GIS, MU and PAYX; Thursday – Dow component NKE and WBA.

Economic reports will see: Tuesday – June Consumer Confidence; Wednesday – May new home sales; Thursday – weekly jobless claims, May durable goods orders, latest look at 1Q G.D.P.; Fr – May P.C.E., final U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey.

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