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June 24, 2025
Dow: 42,364
S&P: 6000
Nasdaq: 19,550
10-YR T-Note: 4.35%
Bitcoin: 101,660
VIX: 21.80
Gold: $3,373
Crude Oil: 73.4
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
In an astounding upside session, the market rallied very strongly after the various stock index futures got sold off sharply on Sunday evening after the U.S. bombed some Iranian nuclear sites on Saturday night.
As we got closer to the opening, they actually improved to the point where there was an indication of a higher opening after all of the initial negative response, and after swings in both directions, the indices made strong rallies into the close with the Dow finishing 375 points higher with only AMGN, CVX and UNH lower for weakness in healthcare and sharply lower oil prices despite the increased tensions in that part of the world.
The S&P did better with a 57 point advance to 6025 on strength in technology and financials while the Nasdaq gained 183 to 19,631 with tech stocks getting a boost from TSLA, CRCL, MELI and CRWD.
The Russell 2000 Index of small stocks got dragged higher by 23 to 2132 on higher financials and the VIX finally got pushed down after some reluctance to 19.87 which was a little difficult to do considering the upheavals in that part of the world.
The price of oil tumbled on hopes that Iran will not disrupt the global flow of crude, something that would hurt economies worldwide but also its own, following the United States’ entry into its war with Israel.
The price of oil initially jumped 6% after trading began Sunday night, a signal of rising worries as investors got their first chance to react to the U.S. bombings. But it quickly erased all those gains and swung to a sharp loss as the focus shifted from what the U.S. military did to how Iran would react.
By late Monday, the price of a barrel of benchmark U.S. oil had dropped 7% to settle at $68.50 after briefly topping $78. That brought it nearly all the way back to where it was before the fighting began over a week ago, when it was sitting just above $68.
The losses accelerated sharply after Iran announced a missile attack on Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which the U.S. military uses. Iran said it matched the number of bombs dropped by the United States on Iranian nuclear sites this past weekend, which could be a signal of a desire to de-escalate the conflict.
Perhaps most importantly for financial markets, Iran’s retaliation did not seem to target the flow of oil. The fear throughout the Israel-Iran war has been that it could squeeze the world’s supply of oil, which would pump up prices for it, gasoline and other products refined from crude.
Iran is a major producer of crude, and it could also try to block the Straight of Hormuz off its coast, through which 20% of the world’s daily oil needs passes on ships.
Several analysts said Iran would likely not close the waterway because Iran itself uses the strait to move its own crude, mostly to China, and it needs the revenue made from such sales of oil.
The Federal Reserve has been reluctant to lower interest rates this year because it is waiting to see how much the President’s tariffs will hurt the economy and raise inflation.
In the bond market, Treasury yields eased after Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said could support cutting rates rates at the Fed’s next meeting in just a month, as long as “inflation pressures remain contained.”
The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.33% from 4.38% late Friday. The two-year Treasury yield, which more closely tracks expectations for the Fed, dropped to 3.84% from 3.90%.
TSLA was the strongest force pushing the S&P higher after jumping 8%. The electric-vehicle company began a test run on Sunday of a small squad of self-driving cabs in Austin, Texas. It is something that Musk has long been pushing and integral to the stock price being as high as it is.
HIMS tumbled 35% after NVO Nordisk said it will no longer work with the company to sell its popular Wegovy obesity drug. Novo Nordisk’s stock that trades in the United States fell 5.5%.
Earnings this week include the following: yesterday – FDS higher; today – KBH lower plus CCL higher, tonight - FDX; Wednesday – GIS, JEF, MU, PAYX, WGO; Thursday – Dow component NKE, MKC, WBA.
Economic reports will include: yesterday - May existing home sales were ahead by 0.8%; today – May Consumer Confidence came in lower than expected at 93; Wednesday – May new home sales; Thursday – weekly jobless claims, May pending home sales, final 1Q G.D.P. estimate, June preliminary durable goods orders; Friday – June P.C.E. Index, June Consumer Sentiment Survey, May personal income
