.png)
June 25, 2025
Dow: 43,070
S&P: 6102
Nasdaq: 19,5980
10-YR T-Note: 4.32%
Bitcoin: 107,150
VIX: 17.19
Gold: $3,340
Crude Oil: 64.60
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
After Monday’s spectacular gains, the market basically repeated the same very strong upside yesterday with even better advances once again after oil prices eased further on hopes that Israel’s war with Iran will not damage the global flow of crude.
The Dow gained 507 points to 43,089 with only AAPL and CVX down, the latter reflecting the lower energy prices. The S&P skyrocketed by 67 to 6092 with other technologies and financials once again leading the way. These gains were helped by the President saying that Israel and Iran had agreed to a “complete and total ceasefire.” The latter is now the S&P’s gain to within 0.8% of its record set in February before collapsing by just about 20% during the spring.
The Nasdaq gained 281 to 19,912 led by many strong technology stocks like AMZN, ORCL and MSFT at a new high while the Russell 2000 Index of small stocks did well again with a 28 point advance to 2161 led by financials.
The VIX collapsed down to 17.48 which is the start of some support area and this leaves the market to a potential setback from current high levels.
The energy markets collapsed again for the second straight day where a barrel of benchmark U.S. crude fell 6% to settle at $64.37. Brent crude, the international standard, had a similar drop.
The fear throughout the Israel-Iran conflict has been that it could squeeze the world’s supply of oil, which would pump up prices for gasoline and hurt the global economy. Iran is a major producer of crude, and it could also try to block the Straight of Hormuz off its coast, through which 20% of the world’s daily oil needs passes on ships.
Oil prices began falling sharply on Monday after Iran launched what appeared to be a limited retaliatory strike to the United States’ entry into the war, one that did not target the production or movement of oil. They kept falling even after attacks continued past a deadline to stop hostilities early Tuesday. Oil prices have dropped so much in the last two days that they are below where they were before the fighting began nearly two weeks ago.
With the global oil market well supplied and the OPEC+ alliance of producing countries steadily increasing production, oil prices could be headed even lower as long as the ceasefire holds and a lasting peace solution can be found.
Falling oil prices should take some pressure off inflation, and that in turn could give the Federal Reserve leeway to resume cutting interest rates.
The Fed has said repeatedly that it wants to wait and see how much Trump’s tariffs will hurt the economy and raise inflation before committing to its next move. So far, the economy seems to be holding up OK, though the May Consumer Confidence report came in lower at 93.
Trump has been pushing loudly for more cuts to rates. And two of his appointees to the Fed have said recently they may consider cutting rates as soon as the Fed’s next meeting next month.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell remains more cautious, though he did indicate Tuesday that the Fed’s next move is likely to be a cut.
Asked during testimony before a Congressional committee whether a reduction could arrive as soon as July, Powell said, “We will get to a place where we cut rates, sooner rather than later – but I wouldn’t want to point to a particular meeting. I don’t think we need to be in any rush because the economy is still strong.”
That helped Treasury yields ease in the bond market. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.29% from 4.34% late Monday.
The two-year Treasury yield, which more closely tracks expectations for Fed action, fell to 3.81% from 3.84%.
Cruise operator CCL was higher after the cruise operator delivered a much bigger profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected.
The C.E.O. said it is seeing strong demand from people booking cruises close to the departure date, and customers are spending strongly once on board. They also raised the forecast for an underlying measure of profit for the full year.
UBER rose after it said customers in Atlanta can use its app to ride in Waymo autonomous vehicles.
COIN rallied as the cryptocurrency exchange rose with the price of bitcoin, which jumped back above $105,000.
In stock markets abroad, indexes rallied at least 1% everywhere from France to Germany to Japan following the announcement of the Israel-Iran ceasefire. Hong Kong’s jump of 2.1% and South Korea’s leap of 3% were two of the strongest moves.
Earnings this week include the following: yesterday – KBH lower and CCL higher, today – FDX,GIS, PAYX lower; tonight - JEF, MU,WGO; Thursday – Dow component NKE, MKC, WBA.
Economic reports will include: yesterday - May Consumer Confidence came in lower than expected at 93; today - May new home sales; Thursday – weekly jobless claims, May pending home sales, final 1Q G.D.P. estimate, June preliminary durable goods orders; Friday – June P.C.E. Index, June Consumer Sentiment Survey, May personal income and spending.
