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June 26, 2025
Dow: 42,190
S&P: 6122
Nasdaq: 20,080
10-YR T-Note: 4.28%
Bitcoin: 107,265
VIX: 16.68
Gold: $3,346
Crude Oil: 65.17
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
After two powerful upside days, the market took a deep breath after a nominally higher start and ended mixed, but still within range of record highs.
The Dow ended lower by 106 to 42,982 hurt by selling in BA, CRM, DHW, HON, IBM, UNH and V. The S&P had difficulty getting over the 6100 level and basically ended unchanged at 6092. It was helped primarily by a burst of strength in NVDA to a new high, in addition to another high in MSFT, plus ADI, COIN and AAPL.
The Nasdaq was the hero as it finally broke through to a new all-time high with a 61 points gain to 19,973 due to the prior mentioned technology winners just mentioned. The Russell 2000 Index of small stocks lagged with a 25 point decline to 2136 while the VIX collapsed once again down to 16.76 and is really getting into what appears to be strong support levels and let us see if it breaks down further which would be further bullishness for stocks.
In the oil market, which has been the center of much of this week’s action, crude prices stabilized after plunging by roughly $10 per barrel in the last two days. Benchmark U.S. crude rose 55 cents to $64.92 per barrel, though it still remains below where it was before the fighting between Israel and Iran broke out nearly two weeks ago. A fragile ceasefire between the two countries appear to be holding for the time being.
FDX fell despite reporting stronger profit and revenue for the latest quarter than analysts expected. It gave a forecast for profit in the current quarter that fell short of expectations.
GIS, the company behind Pillsbury and Progresso soups, lost ground after reporting weaker revenue for the latest quarter than analysts expected, though its profit topped forecasts. It also said an underlying measure of profit could fall by 10% to 15% this upcoming fiscal year.
Also on the weak side were the homebuilders due to a very weak May new home sales report which fell by 14% to a seven month low.
On the upside was BMBL which jumped 25% after the online dating platform said it would cut about 30% of its workforce, or 240 jobs, to save up to $40 million in annual costs.
Companies involved in the cryptocurrency industry, meanwhile, rose as the price of bitcoin continued to steam ahead with investors willing to take on more risk. As mentioned above, COIN, the crypto exchange, climbed 3% as bitcoin topped $107,000.
In the bond market, Treasury yields held relatively steady, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury eased to 4.28% from 4.30% late Tuesday.
Yields had dropped a day earlier after the chair of the Federal Reserve said it is waiting for the right moment to resume cutting interest rates.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said again on Wednesday that he wants to wait and see how the President’s tariffs affect the economy and inflation before committing to its next move. In testimony before a Senate committee, Powell echoed many of his statements from the day before, when he spoke at the House of Representatives, and he said, “For the time being, we are well positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.”
Earnings this week include the following: yesterday – FDX,GIS, PAYX, WGO lower; today – MU, MKC higher, JEF lower, tonight - Dow component NKE.
Economic reports will include: yesterday - May new home sales fell by 14% to a seven-month low; today – weekly jobless claims fell to 236000, May pending home sales, final 1Q G.D.P. estimate was lowered to 0.5%, June preliminary durable goods orders rose by 16.4% but without aircraft orders were only higher by 1.7%; Friday – June P.C.E. Index, June Consumer Sentiment Survey, May personal income and spending.
