Daily Market Notes | 5-minute read

June 27, 2024

By Donald Selkin | Chief Market Strategist

DOW: 39,233.61

S&P: 5,487.14

Nasdaq: 17,859.82

10YR T-Note: 4.29%

Bitcoin: 62,011.80

VIX: 12.42

Gold: $2327.73

Crude Oil: $81.70

Prices Current as of 10:45 am

Source: CNBC

40+ Years on

Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.

The major indices went between losses and gains and ended slightly on the positive side as the S&P and Nasdaq settled close to their all-time highs from last week.

The Dow made a late rush to end with a 15 point gain as AAPL. AMZN, BA and HD, which was ridiculed the day before due to a strange connection to poor earnings from POOL, all did well. AMZN surpassed the $2 trillion in market value for the first time and it follows NVDA which hit $3 trillion and briefly became the most valuable company of all.

The S&P also managed to squeak out a gain of 8 to 54378 led by gains in the Big 3 – MSFT, AAPL and NVDA.

The Nasdaq did better with 87 points ahead to 17,805 as it got help from the three mentioned above plus NFLX and TSLA while the Russell 2000 Index of small stocks pulled by the rear with another small decline of 4 to 2015 and the VIX plunged down to 12.55 which is very close to long-term support and leaves the market vulnerable to some sort of decline which we see for today’s opening.

Cheerios maker GIS fell 4.6% after reporting that revenue for its most recent quarter fell more sharply than analysts expected. The company has been dealing with lower sales volumes as consumers grow more cautious and price-conscious amid stubborn inflation.

FDX helped offset the losses with a gain of 15.5%. The package carrier reported results for its latest quarter that easily beat forecasts and RIVN jumped by 23% after Volkswagen said it would invest up to $5 billion in the struggling maker of electric vehicles.

The big focus this week is tomorrow’s May P.C.E. report and could definitely affect the market depending on what it says. Investors expect the index will show that the rate of inflation eased to 2.6% in May, following a 2.7% reading in April.

The Fed is trying to tame inflation back to its 2% target, but the rate has been sticky. The PCE has been hovering just below 3% for months. The better known consumer price index has been hovering around 3% throughout 2024, though it was as high as 9.1% in the middle of 2022.

The latest updates on inflation could influence the central bank’s decision on when to begin cutting interest rates, which remain at their highest level in more than 20 years.

In the bond market, Treasury yields were mixed. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.32% from 4.25% late Tuesday. It has been mostly falling since topping 4.70% in late April, which has relaxed the pressure on the stock market.

The economy has remained relatively strong, despite inflation and high borrowing costs for consumers and businesses. Economic growth has been slowing, though, and consumers are seemingly more stressed and shifting spending to necessities. Investors are hoping that Fed can time its rate cuts so that it relieves pressure on the economy before it slows too much, but doesn’t also fall short of its goal of cooling inflation.

Earnings this week will have: yesterday - FDX higher and GIS lower; today - MU, PAYX and WBA lower and MKC higher; tonight - Dow component NKE.

Economic reports will see: yesterday - May new home sales fell by 11.3%, the lowest since last fall; today – weekly jobless claims eased back to 233K, May durable goods orders came in at 0.1% but ex-transportation were negative by 0.1%, final look at 1Q G.D. rose a bit to 1.4%; Friday – May P.C.E., final U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey.

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