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June 3, 2025
Dow: 42,256
S&P: 5939
Nasdaq: 19,328
10-YR T-Note: 4.42%
Bitcoin: 105,420
VIX: 18.80
Gold: $3,351
Crude Oil: 63.3
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
After a very weak opening again, the market turned around nicely to the upside and ended with additional gains to start the month of June, which follows a very strong month of May, which began when things were down in the dumps.
The Dow was off by 416 points early in the session but began to turn around from those low levels and went positive late in the session to end 35 points higher to 42,305 led by advances in BA, IBM, UNH and NVDA which is improving on last week’s earnings-related advances.
The S&P turned a 50 point early decline into a closing advance of 24 to 5936 led by gains in the large technology stocks, which continues the trend of last month, in addition to energy issues which did well on a rise in crude oil prices. And the pattern was typical of the early days of the rally, when the Magnificent 7 carried the market higher even though more stocks in the S&P fell than rose.
The Nasdaq turned an early loss of 129 into a closing gain of 129 led by those large tech stocks and the Russell 2000 came along for the upside rise with a 4 point gain to 2070.
The VIX went from an early gain when stocks were low to a closing loss down to 18.36 which again seems vulnerable to a gain on potential upcoming weakness in equities.
Indexes had been down in the morning following some discouraging updates on U.S. manufacturing. The President has been warning that U.S. businesses and households could feel some pain as he tries to use tariffs to bring more manufacturing jobs back to the country, and their on and off rollout has created lots of uncertainty.
The oil market rose to around $62.50 a barrel when the countries in the OPEC+ alliance decided to increase their production again, a move that often pushes crude prices down because it puts more on the market, but analysts said investors were widely “expecting it’, whatever that is supposed to mean.
The past weekend’s attacks by Ukraine in Russia helped to raise uncertainty about the flow of oil and gas around the world. It also helped gold to rise to a three-month high as well.
Monday’s market moves also came after more harsh rhetoric crossed between the world’s two largest economies, just a few weeks after the U.S. and China agreed to pause many of their tariffs that had threatened to drag the economy into a recession.
The U.S. was blasted by China for moves that it said hurt China’s interests, including issuing AI chip export control guidelines, stopping the sale of chip design software to China and planning to revoke Chinese student visas.
“These practices seriously violate the consensus” reached during trade discussions in Geneva last month, the Commerce Ministry said in a statement. That followed Trump’s accusation at the end of last week, where he said China was not living up to its end of the agreement that paused their tariffs against each other.
But Trump on Friday told Pennsylvania’s steelworkers that he is going to double tariff on steel imports to 50% to protect their industry, a dramatic increase that could further push up prices for a metal used to make housing, autos and other goods. That helped stocks of U.S. steelmakers climb.
On the losing side were automakers and other heavy users of steel and aluminum, such as F and GM.
LYRA soared nearly 311% for one of the market’s biggest gains after reporting positive late-stage trial results of an implant to treat chronic sinus inflammation in some patients.
In the bond market, Treasury yields rose as worries continue about how much debt the U.S. government will have to consider due to plans to cut taxes and increase the deficit.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury climbed to 4.44% from 4.41% late Friday and from just 4.01% roughly two months ago, which is a notable move for the bond market.
Yields had dipped briefly in the morning, before rallying back, following the updates on manufacturing, which suggested that effects of Trump’s tariffs are taking root in the economy.
“The impact of ever-changing trade policies of the current administration has wreaked havoc on suppliers’ ability to react and remain profitable,” one manufacturer in the transportation equipment industry said in the Institute for Supply Management’s survey, which came in weaker than economists expected.
A separate report from S&P Global on manufacturing came in better than expected, but the overall figure “masks worrying developments under the hood of the U.S. manufacturing economy,” said the chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. He said uncertainty caused by tariffs has worries high about supplier delays and rising prices.
Earnings this week include: yesterday – CPB higher; today – SIG higher; tonight - CRWD, DG, HP; Wednesday – DLTR, FIVE, MBD; Thursday – AVGO, DOCU, VAIL, LULU.
Economic reports will see: yesterday – April construction spending fell by 0.4%, ISM April Manufacturing Survey eased to 48.5; today – April factory orders were down by 3.7%, April JOLT survey came in at 7.4 million which was lower; Thursday – April trade balance, weekly jobless claims; Friday – May non-farm payroll report for which the current estimate is 123K versus the prior month’s 177,000.
