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June 30, 2025
Dow: 43,926
S&P: 6180
Nasdaq: 20,302
10-YR T-Note: 4.26%
Bitcoin: 107,640
VIX: 17.11
Gold: $3,300
Crude Oil: 65.45
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
Despite an afternoon dip into negative territory, the higher market then resumed its upside run to get the S&P and Nasdaq to new record high closes on Friday. This was another milestone in the market’s remarkable recovery from a springtime plunge caused by fears that the Trump administration’s trade policies could harm the economy.
The Dow gained 432 to 43,819 led by gains in AXP, AMZN, HD, MCD, UNH and beaten-down NKE which gained 15% despite saying that it could be hurt by the tariffs. The S&P gained 32 to 6173, finishing above its previous record set in February. It had fallen nearly 20% from February 19th through April 8th.
The Nasdaq gained 105 to 20,273 helped by the usual tech gains such as MVDA, AMZN and plenty of others while the Russell 2000 of small stocks remained unchanged at 2173.
The Vix continued to decline, now down to 16.32 and the question is how much lower can it go before digging into support which would turn the market lower once it starts to rise.
The market’s complete turnaround from its deep swoon happened in about half the time that it normally takes, said one market observer.
President Donald Trump’s decision Friday to halt trade talks with Canada threatened to derail the run to a record, but the market steadied after the S&P briefly turned negative.
The broader market has seemingly shaken off fears about the Israel-Iran war disrupting the global supply of crude oil and sending prices higher, as a ceasefire between the two nations is still in place.
The price of crude oil in the U.S. rose 0.4% to $65.52 a barrel and have fallen back to pre-conflict levels.
Investors are also monitoring potential progress on trade conflicts between the U.S. and its trading partners, specifically China. The two countries have signed a trade deal that will make it easier for American firms to obtain magnets and rare earth minerals from China that are critical to manufacturing and microchip production, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Friday.
China’s Commerce Ministry also said that the two sides had “further confirmed the details of the framework” for their trade talks. But its statement did not explicitly mention an agreement to ensure U.S. access to rare earths, and instead said it will review and approve “eligible export applications for controlled items.”
Inflation remains a big concern for businesses and consumers. Trump’s on-again-off-again tariff policy has made it difficult for companies to make financial forecasts. It has also put more pressure on consumers worried about already stubborn inflation. A long list of businesses from carmakers to retailers have warned that higher import taxes will likely hurt their revenues and profits.
The U.S. has 10% baseline tariffs on all imported goods, along with higher rates for Chinese goods and other import taxes on steel and autos. The economy and consumers have remained somewhat resilient, though analysts and economists expect to see the impact grow as import taxes continue to work their way through businesses to consumers.
The threat of more severe tariffs continues to hang over the economy. The current pause on a round of retaliatory tariffs against a long list of nations is set to expire on July 9th. Failure to negotiate deals or further postpone the tariffs could once again rattle investors and consumers.
The Federal Reserve is monitoring the tariff situation with a big focus on inflation. The rate of inflation has been stubbornly sitting just above the central bank’s target of 2%. The P.C.E. report on Friday showed that it rose by 0.1% and 2.5% year over year while the core rate was higher by 0.2% and 2.7% year over year. previous month.
The Fed cut interest rates three times in late 2024 following a historic series of rate hikes to cool inflation. The PCE was as high as 7.2% in 2022 while the more commonly used consumer price index hit 9.1%.
The Fed hasn’t cut rates so far in 2025 over worries that tariffs could reignite inflation and hamper the economy. Economists still expect at least two rate cuts before the end of the year.
Bond yields held relatively steady. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.27% from 4.24% late Thursday. The two-year Treasury yield, which more closely tracks expectations for what the Federal Reserve will do, edged up to 3.74% from late Thursday.
Earnings this week will see: Tuesday – CEG.
Economic reports will have: Tuesday – May construction spending, May JOLTS report; Thursday – weekly jobless claims, May factory orders, June non-farms payroll reports for which the estimate is 110,00 and the unemployment rate is 4.3%. Job growth this year has averaged 123,800 compared to 191,900 the previous two years.
