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June 4, 2025
Dow: 42,574
S&P: 5981
Nasdaq: 19,400
10-YR T-Note: 4.38%
Bitcoin: 105,000
VIX: 17.76
Gold: $3,884
Crude Oil: 63.51
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
For the second straight day this week, the market once again started lower by 119 and then pushed higher and higher into the close as the Dow rose for the fourth straight session with a 214 point gain to 42,519 led by NVDA at a new high plus MSFT and IBM.
The S&P followed the same pattern with an early 42 point decline ending in a closing advance of 34 to 5970 led by most of the larger tech stocks with internet stocks doing well, along with energy issues. It is now back to 2.8% off of its best record set earlier this year.
The Nasdaq ended higher with a gain of 156 up to 19,399 while the Russell 2000 did really well with 33 points to 2103 while the VIX declined once again to 17. 69 as it keeps getting low enough to have some sort of gain if stocks ever decide to go lower.
These gains came despite everyone waiting for more updates on the President’s tariffs and how much they are going to affect the economy.
DG, one of my favorite stores, rose by 16% after reporting stronger profit and revenue for the start of the year than analysts expected. The discount retailer also raised its forecasts for profit and revenue over the full year, though it cautioned that “uncertainty exists for the remainder of the year” because of tariffs and how they might affect its customers.
Many other companies have cut or withdrawn their financial forecasts for the upcoming year because of the uncertainty caused by Trump’s on-again-off-again rollout of tariffs. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said on Tuesday that it is forecasting 1.6% growth for the U.S. economy this year, down from 2.8% last year.
But while Trump’s tariffs have certainly made U.S. households feel more pessimistic about where the economy and inflation are heading, reports have suggested only a moderate hit so far. Manufacturers have begun to feel the effects, but the overall job market has remained solid overall with layoffs remaining relatively low, and inflation has not taken off.
The April JOLTS report showed that U.S. employers were advertising more openings at the end of April than economists expected at 7.4 million, another signal that the labor market remains resilient. It set the stage for a more important report coming on Friday, which will show how much hiring and firing U.S. employers did in May.
On the trade front, hopes are there that Trump will reach trade deals with other countries that will ultimately lower tariffs, particularly with the world’s second-largest economy. Of course there is little reason to believe that this will take place as this promise has yielded nothing so far except for a vague relationship with the U.K. The U.S. side said that the President was expecting to speak with Chinese leader Xi Jinping this week. A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said Tuesday that they had no information on that.
In the bond market, Treasury yields held relatively steady. The yield on the 10-year Treasury edged down to 4.45% from 4.46% late Monday, though it had been lower earlier in the morning before the stronger-than-expected report on U.S. jobs openings.
It is a cooldown following a sharp rise for yields over the last two months. Yields had been climbing in part on concerns about how the U.S. government may be set to add trillions of dollars to its debt through tax cuts.
Earnings this week include: yesterday – SIG and DG higher; today – CRWD, DLTR lower and HPE higher; tonight - FIVE, MBD; Thursday – AVGO, DOCU, VAIL, LULU.
Economic reports will see: yesterday – April factory orders were down by 3.7%, April JOLT survey came in at 7.4 million, April factory orders dropped by 3.2%; today – ISM Services PMI rose to 53.7; Thursday – April trade balance, weekly jobless claims; Friday – May non-farm payroll report for which the current estimate is 123K versus the prior month’s 177,000.
