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June 5, 2025
Dow: 42,362
S&P: 5979
Nasdaq: 19,530
10-YR T-Note: 4.32%
Bitcoin: 105,700
VIX: 18.17
Gold: $3,404
Crude Oil: 63.15
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
The market ran out of steam late yesterday, as the Dow went negative and the S&P fell back to unchanged after being higher for most of the day.
“Experts” explained that the reason for the late selling was that there were two “potentially discouraging reports” on the economy.
The Dow ended down by 91 after being up by 126 hurt by selling in AAPL, AMGN, BA, CVX and GS, which had done well lately. The S&PS&P 500 finished the day virtually unchanged and remained 2.8% below its all-time high. It had been higher by 20 but sold off later in the day to end at 5921. It was hurt by declines in AAPL, GCV, PLTR and TSLA.
The Nasdaq did the best with a 60 point gain helped by AMZN, NFLX, META, ADI and ended at 19,460 while the Russell 2000 Index of small stocks dropped by 4 to 2098.
And how about the VIX, which went a little lower to 17.61 and one wonders how much further down this one can go from here?
The action saw Treasury yields tumbling following the weaker-than-expected economic updates.
One said that activity contracted for U.S. retailers, finance companies and other businesses in the services industries last month, when economists were expecting to see growth. Businesses told the Institute for Supply Management in its survey that all the uncertainty created by tariffs is making it difficult for them to forecast and plan and it came in at 56.7.
So far, the U.S. job market has remained remarkably resilient despite years of high inflation and now the threat of the tariffs.
Following the reports, traders built up bets that the Federal Reserve will need to cut interest rates later this year in order to prop up the economy, which in turn caused the fall for Treasury yields. The weaker-than-expected ADP report also pushed Trump to call on Fed Chair Jerome Powell to deliver cuts to rates more quickly.
“‘Too Late’ Powell must now LOWER THE RATE,” Trump said on his Truth Social platform. “He is unbelievable!!!”
The Fed has yet to cut interest rates this year after slashing them through the end of 2024. Part of the reason for the pause is that the Fed wants to see how much Trump’s tariffs will hurt the economy and raise inflation. While lower interest rates could boost the economy, they could also give inflation more fuel.
Some companies that benefit from lower interest rates rallied after Treasury yields fell, such as homebuilders, rose.
HPE gained after delivering a stronger profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected.
CRWD, the cybersecurity company that Delta Air Lines has sued for a technology outage last summer, fell despite reporting a stronger profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected. Its revenue fell just short of analysts’ target, as did its forecast for revenue in the current quarter.
In stock markets abroad, indexes rose across much of Europe and Asia as the wait continued for more updates on trade talks that could convince Trump to lower his tariffs. Hopes for such deals have been a big reason U.S. stocks have roared back after falling roughly 20% below their record two months ago.
But nothing is assured, and Trump early Wednesday said of China’s leader Xi Jinping, “I like President XI of China, always have, and always will, but he is VERY TOUGH, AND EXTREMELY HARD TO MAKE A DEAL WITH!!!”
It is pleasantly astounding to me that the market has done so well considering that all of the optimistic talk of hundreds of trade deals about to come to this country has produced nothing so far despite the administration bragging about this. In addition to the newfound issues with the “Beautiful New Bill” that is running into trouble in Congress and other influential areas, is another concern that the market is ignoring for the time being.
In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.35% from 4.46% late Tuesday. The two-year Treasury yield, which more closely tracks traders’ expectations for what the Fed will do with overnight interest rates, eased to 3.86% from 3.96%.
Earnings this week include: yesterday – CRWD, DLTR, ASAN lower and HPE higher; today – FIVE and MBD higher, PVH and BFB lower; tonight - AVGO, DOCU, VAIL, LULU.
Economic reports will see: yesterday – ISM Services PMI rose to 53.7; today – April trade balance came in a bit to $61.6 billion, weekly jobless claims rose to 247,000; Friday – May non-farm payroll report for which the current estimate is 123K versus the prior month’s 177,000.
