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June 6, 2025
Dow: 42,701
S&P: 5997
Nasdaq: 19,534
10-YR T-Note: 4.48%
Bitcoin: 105,142
VIX: 16.90
Gold: $3,355
Crude Oil: 64.48
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
I had been saying for days now, that how could the market keep doing so well with no tariff agreements in sight despite the administration’s promises that they would be rolling in, which they have not been.
Also, I said that the VIX was getting too low and was vulnerable to some kind of rise, and this could only happen if things went lower, which they did yesterday.
But it was not for a lack of trying as the averages were nicely higher for good parts of the morning with the S&P just about getting to the nice round number, from which it was rejected.
The Dow got as high as a morning gain of 150 before going downhill and negative at 3pm before ending at 42,318, lower by 108.
The S&P got up to 5999 before it also came way down to 5939 for a loss of 31 and half of that loss came from TSLA’s collapse.
The Nasdaq was also higher by 174 before it went negative at 3pm as well and ended down by 162 to 19,298. There was strength in MSFT, NOW, ORCL after a long while, plus NVDA, MDB.
The one that held up the best was the Russell 2000 Index of small stocks which was nominally ahead for most of the day before ending down by 1 to 2097.
The VIX got as low as 17.08 when the market was on its high and then jumped to 18.48 as mentioned above when I said that it was too low to maintain this level, and this is what we got.
The S&P lost half of its value due to TSLA’s collapse when someone had the nerve to go after the President, who has been untouchable from Republicans. He actually went so far as to say that Trump should be impeached and replaced while the President counterattacked by saying that TSLA could lose some federal contracts, and who would have thought that these two former buddies last week were trading compliments to each other, go figure.
A resilient job market has been one of the linchpins that has propped up the U.S. economy, and the worry is that all the uncertainty created by the President could push businesses to freeze their hiring.
The data came as PG, the giant behind such brands as Pampers diapers and Cascade dish detergent, said it will cut up to 7,000 over the next two years. Its stock fell 1.9%.
The CEO of PVH, which runs the Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger brands, likewise cited challenges from “an increasingly uncertain consumer and macroeconomic backdrop.”
Its stock fell 18% even though it reported stronger revenue and profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected. The company cut its profit forecast for its full fiscal year, saying it will likely be able to offset only some of the potential hit it will take because of tariffs.
Circle Internet Group, the U.S.-based issuer of one of the most popular cryptocurrencies, surged 168.5% in its first day of trading on the New York Stock Exchange.
FIVE climbed after the retailer, which sells products priced between $1 and $5, reported a stronger profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected. They credited broad-based strength across most of its merchandise
In the bond market, Treasury yields held steadier. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.40% from 4.37% late Wednesday after tumbling from 4.46% the day before.
Earnings this week include: yesterday – FIVE and MBD higher, PVH and BFB lower; today AVGO, DOCU, IOT, LULU lower and RBRK higher.
Economic reports will see: yesterday – April trade balance came in a bit to $61.6 billion, weekly jobless claims rose to 247,000; today – May non-farm payroll report for which the current estimate is 123K versus the prior month’s 177,000. This will be further discussed in Monday’s newsletter.
