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June 9, 2025
Dow: 42,676
S&P: 6011
Nasdaq: 19,635
10-YR T-Note: 4.50%
Bitcoin: 107,700
VIX: 17.30
Gold: $3,348
Crude Oil: 65
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
Once again ignoring the completely misguided estimates from A.D.P. which came in at only 37,000 yet the financial media went with this as some sort of accurate reporting, the market did very nicely on Friday with the Dow up by 443 to 42,762 led by AAPL for a change, plus AXP, CRM, CVX, GS, JPM and UNH.
The S&P did even better with 61 points to a nice even 6000 with technology, financials and industrials leading the way and is now only 2.3% within its record high. It is now higher for the second consecutive week. The Nasdaq gained 231 led by the technology group once again with AMZN, AAPL, META, MSFT, even TSLA made some gains after its recent nasty fall and BKNG leading the upside charge.
The Russell 2000 Index of small stocks also did well on strength in financials to 21,300 while the VIX continues to go lower, now down to 16.77 and subject to gains if stocks fall from extended levels.
Circle Internet Group (CRCL) the insurer of one of the most popular cryptocurrencies, rose 29.4%. That adds to its 168% gain from Thursday when it debuted on the New York Stock Exchange.
U.S. employers slowed their hiring last month, but still added a solid 139,000 jobs amid uncertainty over the President’s trade war. The closely watched monthly update reaffirmed that the job market remains resilient, despite worries from businesses and consumers about the impact of tariffs on goods going to and coming from the U.S. and its most important trading partners. The jobless rate remained at 4.2% and average hourly earnings gained 0.4% for the month and 3.9% yearly. Healthcare and leisure and hospitality led the way higher while government and manufacturing were down.
The President’s on-again-off-again tariffs continue to weigh on companies. LULU plunged by 20% after the maker of yoga clothing cut its profit expectations late Thursday as it tries to offset the impact of tariffs while being buffeted by competition from start-up brands.
It joins a wide range of companies, from retailers to airlines, who have warned investors about the potential hit to their revenue and profits because of tariffs raising costs and consumers potentially tightening their spending.
Hopes that the President will lower his tariffs after reaching trade deals with other countries have been among the main reasons the S&P has rallied back so strongly since dropping roughly 20% from its record two months ago. Senior U.S. administration officials will meet with a Chinese delegation today in London for the next round of negotiations between Washington and Beijing. What is utterly astounding on the upside is that not one real deal between the U.S. and any other country has been signed despite promises from various administration officials that 90 countries are coming begging to the U.S. to make one, so let’s see how this arena progresses.
The economy is already absorbing the impact from tariffs on a wide range of goods from key trading partners, along with raw materials such as steel. Heavier tariffs could hit businesses and consumers in the coming months.
The U.S. economy contracted during the first quarter. Recent surveys by the Institute for Supply Management, a trade group of purchasing managers, found that both American manufacturing and services businesses contracted last month. On Tuesday, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development forecast 1.6% growth for the U.S. economy this year, down from 2.8% last year.
The uncertainty over tariffs and their economic impact has put the Federal Reserve in a delicate position.
The central bank is holding its benchmark interest rate steady as it worries about tariffs reigniting inflation. It fought hard, using interest rate increases, to ease inflation back toward its target of 2% and rates have been hovering just above that level.
The Fed has been hesitant to cut interest rates in 2025 after trimming rates three times late last year. While lower interest rates can give the economy a boost, they can also push inflation higher. That could be especially damaging if import taxes are also raising costs for businesses and consumers.
In the bond market, Treasury yields made significant gains. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.51% from 4.39% late Thursday. The two-year Treasury yield, which more closely tracks traders’ expectations for what the Federal Reserve will do with overnight interest rates, rose to 4.04% from 3.92% late Thursday.
Earnings this week will see: today – CASY higher; Tuesday – GME, JSM; Wednesday – CHWY, ORCL; Thursday – ADBE.
Economic reports include: Wednesday – May C.P.I; Thursday – May P.P.I., weekly jobless claims; Friday – May U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey.
