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May 12, 2025
Dow: 42,269
S&P: 5819
Nasdaq: 18,550
10-YR T-Note: 4.44%
Bitcoin: 103,780
VIX: 20
Gold: $3,222
Crude Oil: 63.55
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
The market gave up early gains on Friday and drifted to end lower, and this late drift prevented the market from adding to the prior two week’s gains. And it was actually the first week in seven where the S&P moved by less than 1.5% after worrying about fears about the President’s trade war and hopes that he’ll relent on some of his tariffs.
The Dow, which was higher earlier by 144 ended lower by 119 led by selling in its pharmaceutical components and CRM, HD, IBM and UNH.
The S&P followed the same pattern with a 28 point gain turning into a closing decline or 4 down to 5659 with those poorly performing pharma stocks and NFLX and NVDA ending lower as well.
The Nasdaq turned an early gain of 141 into a closing one of only 1 point to 17,929 as BKNG, NVDA, NFLX, GOOG and PLTR all dipped lower while the Russell 2000 Index of small stocked eased off by 3 to 2023. The VIX actually ended lower at 21.90 despite the indices all going down as well, go figure.
The week’s main event for financial markets came over the weekend when high-level U.S. and Chinese officials met in Switzerland for their first talks since Trump launched an escalating trade war between the world’s two largest economies. The fear among investors and economists is that a recession could hit if the United States doesn’t reach trade deals that lower its tariffs by enough and quickly enough.
Trump on Friday floated the idea of bringing tariffs on Chinese imports down to 80% from their current 145% rate, but then he said that it will be up to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who will be in Switzerland. While 80% would indeed be a reduction, it would still be high, and Trump’s posting on social media caused a brief jolt in financial markets. Futures for U.S. stocks sank immediately as mentioned above on Friday because of this.
But markets quickly calmed as the wait continued for what U.S. and Chinese officials will say after their meeting.
Trump also talked up the potential for more trade deals that could be on the way with other countries, following his announcement the day before on an agreement with the United Kingdom.
In the meantime, the flow of earnings reports for the start of the year from companies is slowing but still moving the market.
EXPE sank even though the travel website reported a stronger profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected. The owner of Vrbo and Hotels.com said demand was weaker than it expected during the quarter, and it highlighted softer-than-expected demand in the United States, as well as a nearly 30% decline in bookings from Canada to its southern neighbor.
Other travel-related companies, including HLT and ABNB have reported a similar softening in travel demand to the U.S. in their recent earnings reports.
SG collapsed by 16% after the salad seller reported a slightly larger loss for the latest quarter than analysts expected. The fast-casual restaurant chain also gave a forecast for revenue over the full year that fell just short of analysts’ estimates.
They helped work against a 28% rally for LYFT, which delivered a stronger profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected. The company said it reached the highest weekly ridership levels in its history during the last week of March.
TSM, the chip giant known as TSMC, offered an encouraging report, saying its revenue in April leaped 48.1% from a year earlier. That sent its stock that trades in the United States up 0.7%.
PODD jumped by 21% for the biggest gain in the S&P after the medical device company reported stronger results for the latest quarter than analysts expected. The company, which sells tubeless insulin pump technology, also raised its forecast for an underlying revenue trend for the full year.
Stocks added 0.4% in Hong Kong but fell 0.3% in Shanghai after China reported that its exports rose at a faster-than-expected 8.1% annual pace in April. Exports to the United States dropped more than 20%, however, as Trump’s steep tariff increases took effect, as that country is the world’s biggest exporter.
In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury edged up to 4.38% from 4.37% late Thursday.
After what took place on the trade negotiations over the weekend in Switzerland, things have turned very bullish for the start of today, with the various stock index futures showing large opening gains and that was due to an agreement that Chinese tariffs on U.S. goods will drop to 10% from 125% and that the U.S. will reduce the tariffs it imposed on Chinese imports to 30% from 145% for the next 90 days.
This will set the better stage for what takes place during that time in order to get a permanent solution.
First-quarter earnings are starting to wind down with the following lineup this week: Wednesday – Dow component CSCO; Thursday – Dow component WMT plus AMAT, DE and TTWO.
Economic reports could have more of an effect with the following: Tuesday – April CPI; Thursday – April PPI, April retail sales, April industrial production and capacity utilization, weekly jobless claims; Friday – April housing starts and mid-May U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey.
