.png)
May 13, 2025
Dow: 42,225
S&P: 5887
Nasdaq: 18,981
10-YR T-Note: 4.44%
Bitcoin: 103,825
VIX: 17.87
Gold: $3,245
Crude Oil: 62.85
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
The market underwent a huge rally to start the new week after China and the United States announced a 90-day truce in their trade war. Each of the world’s two largest economies agreed to take down temporarily most of its tariffs against the other, which economists had warned could start a recession and create shortages on U.S. store shelves.
The Dow gained 1,160 points to 42,410 led by financials and technicals while the S&P rose by 184 to 5814, a gain of 3.3% to pull back within 5% of its all-time high from February. It has been roaring higher since falling nearly 20% below the mark last month on hopes that the President will lower his tariffs after reaching trade deals with other countries. The index is back above where it was on April 2nd, the s0-called “Liberation Day” when he announced stiff worldwide tariffs that put forward concerns about a potentially self-inflicted recession.
The Nasdaq did the best of all with a 779 point upside moonshot to 18,08 despite losses in NFLX and MSTR but with a huge gain in META.
The Russell 2000 Index of small stocks gained 69 to 2093 on strength in financials while the VIX collapsed to 18.39, down from 60 when equities reached their lows.
Crude oil prices climbed because a global economy less burdened by tariffs will likely burn more fuel. The value of the U.S. dollar strengthened against everything from the euro to the Japanese yen to the Swiss franc. And Treasury yields jumped on expectations that the Federal Reserve won’t have to cut interest rates as deeply this year as earlier expected in order to protect the economy from the damage of tariffs.
The United States said in a joint statement that it will cut tariffs on Chinese goods to 30% from as high as 145%. China, meanwhile, said its tariffs on U.S. goods will fall to 10% from 125%. The 90-day pause gives time for more talks following the weekend’s negotiations in Geneva, Switzerland, which the U.S. side said yielded “substantial progress.“
The 90-day reprieve also comes at a vital time for the economy, allowing retailers and suppliers to ensure that shelves are stocked for the all important back-to-school and holiday shopping seasons.
The U.S.-China pause followed a deal the United States announced last week with the United Kingdom that will bring down tariffs on many U.K. imports to 10% but will still require weeks to finalize all the details.
Apparel companies were also strong. LULU jumped almost 9% as more than a quarter of its fabric came from mainland China last fiscal year, and a reduction in tariffs would mean a less-tough decision on whether to pass along increases to costs to customers or to eat them through reduced profits. Even beaten-down NKE made a nice jump from very low levels.
Travel companies jumped on hopes that lower tariffs would encourage more customers to feel comfortable enough to spend on trips. Cruise lines and airlines did well.
In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury jumped to 4.47% from 4.37% late Friday.
The two-year Treasury yield, which more closely tracks expectations for what the Fed will do with interest rates, jumped even more. It rose to 4.00% from 3.88% as traders ratcheted back expectations for how many cuts to interest rates the Fed may deliver this year.
One item that did not do well was the price of gold and gold-related stocks after the precious metal hit record highs in recent weeks as investors reached for traditional safe havens amid worries about tariffs. They fell yesterday after a surge in gold and mining stocks in recent weeks as investors piled into safe-haven assets amid worries about the Trump administration's tariffs. Gold set several records this year, and peaked at an intraday record of just over $3,500 per ounce late last month and ended at $3,210 per ounce.
First-quarter earnings are starting to wind down with the following lineup this week: Wednesday – Dow component CSCO; Thursday – Dow component WMT plus AMAT, DE and TTWO.
Economic reports could have more of an effect with the following: today - April CPI rose by 0.2% and the same for ex-food and energy while year over year the numbers were 2.3% and 2.8% respectively ; Thursday – April PPI, April retail sales, April industrial production and capacity utilization, weekly jobless claims; Friday – April housing starts and mid-May U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey.
