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May 14, 2025
Dow: 42,167
S&P: 5887
Nasdaq: 19,086
10-YR T-Note: 4.50%
Bitcoin: 104,250
VIX: 18.4
Gold: $3,193
Crude Oil: 62.50
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
Following Monday’s upside explosion to start the week, the market did very well again yesterday, except for the Dow being distorted which knocked off around 400 points of that index just by itself. Otherwise, things were fine.
As mentioned, the Dow fell by 269 points to 42,140 with the downside disaster in UNH accounting for most of the damage, along with other consumer staples issues like AMGN, HD, HON, MRK and PG.
The S&P skyrocketed again by 42 points to 5886 led by mainly technology and the financials once again. The gains here were largely motivated by an encouraging report that showed inflation unexpectedly slowed in the April C.P.I. data. It was 0.2% and 0.2% excluding food and energy and gains of 2.3% and 2.8% year over year respectively.
Stocks have been roaring back since the S&P fell nearly 20% below its record last month on hopes that the President will ease his high tariffs on trading partners worldwide before they create a recession and send inflation spiking higher. It is now back within 4.2% of its all-time high set in February and positive again for the year so far. In fact, the last time that the S&P went from a decline of worse than 15% to being positive for the year was back in 1982.
This is encouraging because such data pulls the economy further from a worst-case scenario (“stagflation,”) one where the economy stagnates but inflation remains high. The Federal Reserve has no good way to fix that toxic combination. It could try to lower rates to help the economy, for example, but that would likely worsen inflation in the short term.
Even with Tuesday’s encouraging report, though, economists and analysts say inflation may still run higher in coming months because of Trump’s tariffs. That will likely leave the Fed waiting for more data to guide their decision on whether and when to cut interest rates in order to help the economy.
It is similar to the wait that investors in general are enduring. With the Fed set to make no moves on interest rates for the time being, markets will likely trade with negotiation and reconciliation headlines.
The Nasdaq did the best with a 301 point advance to 19,010 led once again by the large cap technology group which everyone now loves at the higher prices when they were shunned on the lows last month.
The Russell 2000 Index of small stocks came along for the ride with 10 points up to 2102 while the VIX continues to drop, now down to 18.22 after its unsustainable high around 60.
COIN jumped 24% after the cryptocurrency exchange learned its stock will join the S&P index next week. That means many investment funds will likewise add it before trading begins on Monday. It will replace DFS, which was bought by COF.
NVDA, which was hated at the lower level, rose as it is partnering with Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund-owned AI startup Humain to ship 18,000 chips to the Middle Eastern nation to help power a new data center project.
SMCI, which builds servers used in AI, jumped 16%. GEV, which is hoping to power vast AI data centers, rose 4%. And PLTR gained 8% to a new all-time high.
They helped offset UNH, whose shares tumbled 18% after it suspended its full-year financial forecast due to higher-than-expected medical costs. The nation’s largest health insurance company also announced that its CEO was stepping down for personal reasons.
In the bond market, Treasury yields ticked higher with hopes for the U.S. economy. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.48% from 4.45% late Monday.
The two-year Treasury yield, which moves more closely with expectations for Fed action, ticked up to 4.01% from 3.98%.
Automakers were among the big gainers in Japan. Nissan added 3% ahead of an announcement that it plans to lay off 20,000 of its workers as part of its restructuring efforts. The automaker said Tuesday that it racked up a loss of 670.9 billion yen ($4.5 billion) in the last fiscal year.
First-quarter earnings are starting to wind down with the following lineup this week: yesterday – SPG and CYBR lower; tonight – Dow component CSCO; Thursday – Dow component WMT plus AMAT, DE and TTWO.
Economic reports could have more of an effect with the following: today - April CPI rose by 0.2% and the same for ex-food and energy while year over year the numbers were 2.3% and 2.8% respectively ; Thursday – April PPI, April retail sales, April industrial production and capacity utilization, weekly jobless claims; Friday – April housing starts and mid-May U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey.
