.png)
May 15, 2025
Dow: 41,895
S&P: 5870
Nasdaq: 18,970
10-YR T-Note: 4.48%
Bitcoin: 102,420
VIX: 18.72
Gold: $3,185
Crude Oil: 61.25
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
After the first two days of strong upside moves by the S&P and Nasdaq to start the week, things yesterday continued on the same pattern as the Dow was weighed down by weakness in its traditional choppy issues while the other two indices kept moving higher mainly based on the newfound, ongoing strength in technology which everyone hated a few weeks ago.
The Dow ended down by 89 to 42,051 on selling in AMGN, CAT, SHW, JNJ, 3J, MRK and that awful UNH while the S&P went back and forth between gains and losses to eke out a 6 point advance to 5892 led by the now beloved technology issues with NVDA, NFLX, TSLA and META leading the upside charge. Most of the stocks in this index ended lower but similar to early in the year, those heavyweight techs carried the day once again. It is now back to within 4.1% of its all-time high set back in February.
The Nasdaq did the best with a 136 point advance to 19,146 led by those mentioned above plus MSFT, SMCI and AMD. The Russell 2000 Index of small stocks lost 18 to 2083 while the VIX moved up a bit from low levels and ended at 18.62.
SMCI rose by 16% after signing a partnership agreement with Saudi Arabian data center company DataVolt. AMD gained after announcing a $6 billion stock buyback program.
Other big gainers included eToro Group, a retail trading platform for stocks and cryptocurrency. It rose 28% in its first day of trading.
Trump has delayed a large swath of his most severe tariffs against America’s trading partners, but some import taxes remain in place. Uncertainty over the path ahead continues to hang over businesses and consumers. The on-again-off-again nature of his trade policy has left companies reluctant to make plans about investment and hiring and consumers nervous about spending.
Businesses continue to trim or withdraw their financial forecasts as they face unpredictable trade policy and cautious consumers.
AEO fell after the retailer withdrew its financial outlook for the year citing “macro uncertainty.” In addition, GM, UPS, KHC and BLUE are among the many companies representing a wide range of industries that have warned about the impact of tariffs and a weakening economy.
More than 90% of companies in the S&P have reported earnings for their latest quarter. The majority of companies have reported better-than-expected earnings, but forecasts for earnings growth during the current quarter have been broadly cut in half for companies in the index.
The economy has already showed signs of slowing. It shrank 0.3% during the first quarter amid a surge of imports as businesses and consumers tried to stock up amid tariffs and policy uncertainty.
Inflation remains a big concern. The latest data on consumer prices released Tuesday showed that tariffs haven’t had much impact yet. But that could change as the impact of current tariffs make their way through supply chains and delayed tariffs potentially go into effect. Inflation has cooled to just above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%, but the threat of higher prices on goods because of import taxes has heightened worries about inflation heating up.
In the bond market, Treasury yields edged higher. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.54% from 4.47% late Tuesday. The two-year Treasury yield, which moves more closely with expectations for Fed action, rose to 4.06% from 4.00% late Tuesday.
First-quarter earnings are starting to wind down with the following lineup this week: today - Dow component CSCO higher and component WMT lower in addition to CRWV; tonight - AMAT, DE, TTWO.
Economic reports could have more of an effect with the following: today - April PPI lower by 0.5% and excluding food and energy down by 0.4%, April retail sales up 0.1% and excluding autos and gas plus 0.2%, April industrial production and capacity utilization, weekly jobless claims unchanged at 229K; Friday – April housing starts and mid-May U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey.
