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May 17, 2025
Dow: 42,640
S&P: 5839
Nasdaq: 19,107
10-YR T-Note: 4.50%
Bitcoin: 104, 000
VIX: 18.47
Gold: $3,249
Crude Oil: 62.20
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
In a repeat performance from the day before, the market roared to a strong finish on Friday, with the consumer issues taking the leadership once again and the traditional technology favorites taking the day off for the second time in a row.
The Dow ended with a gain of 332 to 42,654 led by AMGN, CAT, MCD, 3M, V to a new high and even beaten-down UNH finally had a higher day for a huge change.
The S&P 500 rose by 41 to 5958 for its fifth straight advance and closed out its third winning week in the last four. It has now rallied back within 3% of its record set in February after briefly dropping almost 20% last month, thanks to optimism that the President will lower his tariffs against other countries after reaching trade deals with them. But the large techs did not do so much, as other groups like consumer staples did better.
The Nasdaq gained 99 to 19,211 led by while the Russell 2000 Index of small stocks added. The VIX dropped to 17.00 after having been as high as 60 at the market bottom several weeks ago.
Trump’s trade war had sent financial markets reeling worldwide because of twin dangers. On one hand, tariffs could slow the economy and drive it into a recession. On the other, tariffs could push inflation higher.
This week featured some encouraging news on each of those fronts. The United States and China announced a 90-day stand-down in most of their punishing tariffs against each other, while a couple of reports on inflation in the United States came in better than economists expected.
That uncertainty has been hitting U.S. households and businesses, raising worries that they may freeze their spending and long-term plans in response, which would hurt the economy. The latest reading in a survey of U.S. consumers by the University of Michigan showed that sentiment weakened again in the first part of May, although the pace of decline wasn’t as bad as in prior months at 50.8.
Perhaps more worryingly, expectations for coming inflation keep building, and U.S. consumers are now bracing for 7.3% in the next 12 months, according to the University of Michigan’s preliminary survey results. That is up from a forecast of 6.5% a month before.
When everyone expects inflation to be high, it could kick off a vicious cycle of behavior that only worsens inflation.
To be sure, only some of the University of Michigan’s survey responses for the preliminary May reading came after the United States and China announced their 90-day truce.
CHTR rose after it said it agreed to merge with Cox Communications in a deal that would combine two of the country’s largest cable companies. The resulting company will change its name to Cox Communications and keep Charter’s headquarters in Stamford, Connecticut.
CRWV jumped 22% after NVDA disclosed that it had increased its ownership stake in the company, whose cloud platform helps customers running artificial-intelligence workloads. Nvidia now owns 7% of the company, up from its nearly 6% stake before CRWV’s initial public offering of stock in March.
NVO’s stock that trades in the United States fell after the Danish company behind the Wegovy drug for weight loss said that its C.E.O. will step down. The company cited “recent market challenges” and how the stock has been performing recently.
In the bond market, Treasury yields held relatively steady.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury edged down to 4.44% from 4.45% late Thursday and from more than 4.50% the day before that. Lower bond yields can encourage investors to pay higher prices for stocks and other investments.
The two-year Treasury yield, which more closely tracks expectations for action by the Federal Reserve, rose to 3.99% from 3.96%. It had been as low as 3.93% earlier in the morning, before the release of the University of Michigan’s survey.
Hope remains that this week’s better-than-expected signals on inflation could give the Federal Reserve more leeway to cut interest rates later this year if high tariffs drag down the U.S. economy.
Unfortunately, after all the upside hoopla, Moody’s once again pulled a nasty downgrade based on the escalating U.S. deficit and re-financing the debt based on higher interest rates.
So we will obviously open lower and if past is present, new buyers should come in at the lower levels, which they have so far.
Earnings are winding down for the first-quarter and the lineup is still heavy on retailers: Tuesday – Dow component HD plus TOL; Wednesday – LOW,, SNOW, TGT, TJX; Thursday – AAP, ADI, INTU, WDAY.
Economic reports will have: today – April L.E.I.; Thursday – April existing home sales, weekly jobless claims; Friday – April new home sales.
