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May 20, 2025
Dow: 42,725
S&P: 5950
Nasdaq: 19,154
10-YR T-Note: 4.48%
Bitcoin: 103,320
VIX: 18.21
Gold: $3,283
Crude Oil: 62.00
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
To start the new week, the market rose after a very weak start despite the U.S. losing its last AAA credit rating on Friday. Since the U.S. and China made a deal to temporarily roll back tariffs last week, the market has been moving up strongly.
As an example, the Dow began with a 317 point decline and then reversed course to end with a closing gain of 137 to 42,792 led by the defensive issues again like AMGN, HON, MCD, V at a new high, MSFT and would you believe it, UNH coming back from its recent depths.
The S&P turned a large 63 point opening loss also into a closing gain of 5 to 5963 led by MSFT, COST, MDTR and GEV.
The Nasdaq lagged once again with only a 4 point rise to 19,215 once again led by MSFT.
The Russell 2000 Index of small stocks dipped by 8 to 2104 while the VIX rose a bit to 18.14.
Concerns are growing, led by the JPM C.E.O. who said that investors' confidence in easing trade tensions could be overblown. Indeed, tariff levels remain elevated and a growing chorus of Federal Reserve officials say they see interest rate cuts on hold until September amid trade uncertainty.
Tariffs have played a prominent role this earnings season with WMT becoming the latest retail giant to warn that rising prices are coming, leading to a pushback from the president.
There is one subject where Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has been consistent since becoming central bank boss nearly seven years ago: The nation’s fiscal path is "unsustainable."
It is a word he has come back to again and again in describing U.S. deficits, making his views well known on the subject despite acknowledging he does not set the nation’s fiscal policy and the Fed is in no position to fix the problem.
“We have been on an unsustainable fiscal path for a long time, and there is no hiding from it,” he added. “In the end, we will have to face that — and the sooner the better.”
Nearly seven years later, Powell is using the same language. On April 16th, he said, “We're running very large deficits at full employment, and this is a situation that we very much need to address.”
On May 7th, he added that the debt is “on an unsustainable path and it's on Congress to figure out how to get us back on a sustainable path.”
But “it's not up to us to give them advice,” he added.
The question of the U.S. fiscal path has taken on new urgency after Moody’s became the latest ratings agency to strip the U.S. of its top AAA rating.
The agency on Friday wrote that if Congress extends President Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, as the GOP wants to do, it will add around $4 trillion to the deficit over the next decade, adding that the result could be a debt burden of 134% of GDP by 2035.
"While we recognize the US' significant economic and financial strengths," Moody's added in a statement that noted the fiscal situation was the result of successive administrations, "we believe these no longer fully counterbalance the decline in fiscal metrics."
Both the White House and its congressional allies have taken pains to appear unfazed by the development, with lawmakers even taking a step forward Sunday night on the package after Moody's directly cited the ongoing effort on Friday.
President Trump disagrees with Moody’s, noting that the world has confidence in the US and that the administration secured trillions in investment from its Middle East trip last week and since he took office.
Even as stocks continued their recent bullish run, bumpy progress of the Republican tax and spend bill remained in high focus. Longer-dated Treasury yields eased from their session highs. The benchmark 10-year yield had risen to near the key 4.55% level, and the 30-year equivalent broke above 5% — a level not seen since late 2023, before declining.
Trump himself provided a broadside at US retail giant WMT on social media, urging the company to "eat the tariffs”. It represented the latest pushback from the president against companies showing consumers the cost of his economic moves, after a disagreement last month with AMZN.
Earnings are winding down for the first-quarter and the lineup is still heavy on retailers: Tuesday – Dow component HD higher and VIK lower; Wednesday – LOW, SNOW, TGT, TJX; Thursday – AAP, ADI, INTU, WDAY.
Economic reports will have: Thursday – April existing home sales, weekly jobless claims; Friday – April new home sales.
