Daily Market Notes | 5-minute read

May 9, 2024

By Donald Selkin | Chief Market Strategist

Market Update:

DOW: 39,241

S&P: 5203

Nasdaq: 16,339

10YR T-Note:4.49%

Bitcoin: 62306

VIX: 13.11


Crude Oil: $79.3

Prices Current as of 11:50 am

Source: CNBC

40+ Years on

Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.

In another relatively calm day for the major indices, the market sort of drifted to a mixed close and remained in tight ranges as the session proceeded.


The Dow, which has been the star lately, ended with a closing advance of 172 up to 39, 058 led by gains in the usual upside heroes recently, namely AMGN, BA, GS and JPM on a strong day in the financials. It was the sixth straight advance for the index which is the longest such streak of the year.


The S&P accomplished a very rare feat, namely to close unchanged, and how often does that happen? It finished at 5187 as some gains in technology stocks along with financials held it together.


The Nasdaq was off by 29 to 16,302 as further weakness in TSLA, along with NVDA, GOOG and AMZN prevented it from doing better while the Russell 2000 Index of small stocks dropped by 9to 2055 after its nice recent run. The VIX continued to decline, now down to 13.00 which starts getting it close to its long- term support level of 12.40 which would probably prevent further advances in the market if it were to get down to that level.

UBER slumped by 6% after reporting worse results for the latest quarter than analysts expected. It also gave a forecasted range for bookings in the current quarter whose midpoint fell below analysts’ estimates.

SHOP got slammed for 18%despite reporting better profit and revenue for the latest quarter than analysts expected. The company, which helps businesses sell things online, said its revenue growth would likely slow this quarter and that it would likely make less profit off each $1 in revenue.

MTCH sank by 5% despite topping profit expectations. The company behind Tinder, Hinge and other apps for connecting people with each other gave a forecast for revenue in the current quarter that fell short of what analysts were expecting. It said its efforts to make Tinder better for women and Gen-Z customers in particular have hurt some performance measurements in the short term.

RIVN also did poorly and these losers helped to offset LYFT which gained 7% higher after it topped expectations for profit and revenue. It said growth was particularly strong for early-morning, commute and weekend-evening trips.


RDDT another winner rose 4% after delivering its first quarterly report as a publicly traded company. It reported a milder loss and better revenue than expected, while also giving a stronger-than-expected forecast for revenue in the current quarter. ANET climbed 6% for the biggest gain in the S&P after topping expectations for both profit and revenue.


Most companies have been reporting stronger profits for the start of the year than analysts expected. That and newly revived hopes for coming cuts to interest rates by the Federal Reserve have helped the U.S. stock market to recover from its rough April.


Treasury yields have largely been easing since Chair Powell said last week that the central bank remains closer to cutting its main interest rate than hiking it, despite a string of higher inflation readings this year. The jobs report last Friday, meanwhile, suggested the economy could pull off the balancing act of staying solid enough to avoid a bad recession without being so strong that it keeps inflation too high.


The yield on the 10-year Treasury recovered some of those losses. It rose to 4.49% from4.46% late Tuesday. The yield on the two-year Treasury, which moves closer with expectations for action by the Fed, ticked up to 4.84% from4.83%.


The stock market also found some support following April’s weakness as companies bought back more shares of their own stock, especially AAPL and this zig-zag pattern since March is likely to remain as we search for a new catalyst.


In stock markets abroad, indexes fell across much of Asia. Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 1.6% after Nintendo forecast that its net profit would fall in the upcoming fiscal year and announced that news of a successor product to its popular Switch device will be made by March 2025.


Earnings this week include: yesterday    – ANET, LYFT, RDDT, AFRM, TOST, TEVA, EPC higher while UBER, TRIP, RIVN, DECK, SHOP and CHK were lower; today – ABNB, ARM, RBLX, WBD lower while HOOD is higher plus tonight - AKAM, YELP; Friday – AMCX.

Economic reports will have: today – weekly jobless claims rose to 231K which was the highest since last August; Friday – preliminary May U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey.

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