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April 3, 2026
Dow: 46,504
S&P: 6,582
Nasdaq: 21,879
10-YR T-Note: 4.36%
Bitcoin: 69,429
VIX: 4.364
Gold: $4,708
Crude Oil: 110.22
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
After five straight lower weeks for the S&P and the Nasdaq, things finally turned around to the upside in last week’s holiday shortened session.
With signs of potential working toward some kind of peace settlement, the Dow gained 3% for the week, the S&P gained 3.4% while the Nasdaq was ahead by 4.4%. These were the largest weekly gains since late November of 2025.
Current estimates for G.D.P. growth during the first-quarter of 2026 have been lowered but are currently estimated to be up by 1.6%.
The inverse correlation between oil and stocks remained in place as the S&P was off by 7.5% since the war’s beginning which was a relatively soft reaction to the 70% increase in oil prices.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, the markets made their best two-day advances since last May ahead of the President’s speech that night which offered nothing new about ending the war or re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz. This resulted in a huge loss for the S&P of around 90 points to start Thursday’s session after news that Iran was making a proposal with Oman to monitor traffic through the strait.
Even though crude prices continued to gain, up to $112 a barrel, even the potential of a resumption of shipping through the strait was enough to force the major equity indices to end nominally higher ahead of the Good Friday holiday.
The latest jobs numbers, released on Friday morning, are likely to make the Fed’s job a little easier at the present time.
The war had threatened the Fed into further uncertainty by making inflation higher, but at the same time it could also hurt the economy. This could cause the two parts of the Fed’s economy, which are stabile prices and full employment, into conflict with each other.
But the March jobs report showed that the labor market remains relatively strong as the number came in with a 178,00 advance led by healthcare at 76,000, construction at 26,000 and manufacturing at 15,000. The jobless rate slipped to 4.3%.
This stability will allow officials to allow interest rates to remain steady at the present time as yields on the two-year Note gained sharply after the release of the report. This means that the Fed is not likely to lower rates until later next year.
On the other hand, the war has increased inflationary pressures and are expected to decrease spending. This potential hit to growth will certainly overtake any inflation issues.
Chair Powell noted that “You can have a series of supply shocks and that can lead the public generally – businesses, price setters, households – to start expecting higher inflation over time and why wouldn’t they?” Considering this risk, he did not mention any need to take action, adding that Fed policy was “in a good place for us to wait and see how that turns out.”
The President of the Federal Reserve bank in New York, said that unemployment rate from the war could be lower and short-lived by mentioning that inflation could tick down to 2.75%, lower than the Fed’s P.C.E. current rate of 2.8%.
Earnings this week will see: Tuesday – LEVI; Wednesday – DAL, STZ; Thursday – WDFC and as I predicted last week, another awful report from NKE.
Next week will see the real start of the heavy earnings reports with JPM and other banks, NFLX and PEP. The expectation is for 13% growth from last year. If companies can do better than this, it could perhaps end the market’s obsession with oil.
Economic reports will have: today – March ISM services index; Tuesday – February durable goods orders; Wednesday – minutes of last Fed meeting; Thursday – February personal income and spending, February P.C.E. Index; Friday – March C.P.I., February factory orders, preliminary U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment INDE, February final durable goods orders.
