.png)
August 17, 2026
Dow: 53,732
S&P: 7,785
Nasdaq: 26,729
10-YR T-Note: 4.7%
Bitcoin: 63,569
VIX: 14.95
Gold: $4,450
Crude Oil: 82.29
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
The market edged back from its all-time high on Friday after the weaker retail sales report, lower by 0.6%, which was the first monthly decline in nine months. This data could help keep interest rates lower but also raises the risk of a slowing economy when inflation is still on the higher side.
Stocks gave up early gains after oil prices rose once again, as a barrel of crude rose to $82.40 while Brent got up to $88.52 as uncertainty remains about the war with Iran, which is preventing oil tankers to freely exit the Persian Gulf once more.
Despite the S&P decline, it did end a third straight higher week, which was the longest such period of gains since a nine-week run that ended in May.
In the better side, such a pullback in inflation which remains higher than most would like but reports earlier last week suggested that the rate of increases is decelerating. If inflation keeps tending that way, it encourages the Federal Reserve to hold off on interest rate increases.
The weaker retail sales after those numbers were boosted by unusual factors such as big tax refunds, the World Cup and even an earlier Prime Day event at AMZN.
But consumers in the U. of Michigan Survey suggested that sentiment is weakening by more than expected at 52.9 and inflation expectations came in at 4.2%, and this took into effect those in the lower older group that can be hurt by inflation.
This coming week sees the end of second-quarter earnings reports with the following large retailers: Tuesday – Dow component HD; Wednesday – LOW, TGT, TJX, EL, Analog Devices; Thursday – Dow component WMT plus DE and ROST.
Economic releases will have on Wednesday – minutes from the late July F.O.M.C. meeting which kept rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% with three members advocating for a ¼ % rate hike.
Tech giants like AMZN and GOOG have powered the stock market to recent highs, fueled by the growth of their AI and cloud computing businesses.
But in recent months, a big driver of their profits came from an unusual source which has been the increasing value of their investment stakes in AI companies.
Over 70% of GOOG’s net quarterly income came from investments in other companies and in particular SPCX which went public in June with the largest IPO ever. Investment gains also accounted for 65% of AMZN’s net income, largely stemming from its stake in Anthropic, which is planning to go public as well.
Worries about the circular nature of the AI boom have persisted for some time and that money is often used to buy products or cloud services from the same companies funding them.
But the investment gains at GOOG and AMZN show how these companies’ fortunes are increasingly linked. They also show the increasing interconnected of the stock market and the broader economy.
These two companies are part of closely watched ones called the Magnificent Seven which also includes MSFT, META, AAPL, TSLA and NVDA.
Overall these stocks pulled in $315 billion in net profit for the second quarter. Of that total, $135 billion came from investment gains. Without those gains, profits for this group would have been equal to the prior quarter as MSFT, META, AAPL and TSLA did not report any comparable investment income.
The gains announced by GOOG appear to be largely attributed to its investment in SPCX, which reported an $80 billion pretax profit stemming from investments in restricted equity securities and holds of $94 billion in SPCX’s shares.
That gain is likely to change as the share price is now 17% below its level on June 30th when GOOG reported its stake. AMZN said that its $50 billion investment gain came “primarily” from its stock in Anthropic.
If this interconnected AI boom begins to reverse, it will have broad consequences as the AI trade as the market was just a few years ago.
This is something that the NYTimes is pointing out in its latest piece.
