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December 15, 2025
Dow: 48,458
S&P: 6,827
Nasdaq: 23,195
10-YR T-Note: 4.17%
Bitcoin: 89,546
VIX: 16.22
Gold: $4,371
Crude Oil: 57.38
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
Further declines in the former leading artificial intelligence stocks pushed the major averages lower on Friday.
The S&P fell by 1.1% which was its worst showing in three weeks, or 74 points to 6827. This weakness pulled the Nasdaq lower by 1.7%, or 398 points to 23,195. This negative action turned the Dow, which had reached a record high earlier in the day at 48,886 before turning lower to end down by 245 to 48,458.
For the week, the Dow did end higher by 1.05% and in addition the Russell 2000 Index of small stocks gained 1.2% to end at a new high while the S&P and Nasdaq both ended lower, which continued the recent move out of technology into basic materials, industrials and financials.
This time it was AVGO which got sold off and dropped by 11% even though the chip company reported a stronger profit for the recent quarter. It had gained 75% for the year so far and how many times have we seen this take place – a huge run up into earnings, a better than expected result and then a lower day following this. It is a perfect example of the recent past already discounting the good news.
This decline took place with ORCL also plunging by 11% after reporting better earnings as well. Concerns about AI technology ability to produce the kinds of profits that make it worth the expense, along with how the tech giant will pay for it. Again hurting the tech space was another decline in leader NVDA.
I have said many times that if one owns this stock, there are very high-priced calls that can be sold against the stock, in the 220 – 270 area that one should feel satisfied in being taken out at these levels in the next few months. So many traders are into buying at these prices because all of the hype about this issue that premiums are very high for prices that might not be achieved in the near-term.
Also not helping was the ongoing rise in longer-term bond yields with the 10-year Note at 4.18%, as the Fed has been reported to be buying loads of the shorter maturities, making the spread between the two items reach very wide levels.
Fed Chair Powell did hint this week that rates may be on hold for a while, with no further cuts coming at next month’s session. But he was less harsh about further cuts in the months after that. The interest rate decision last week saw a somewhat divided Fed in that two Fed officials did not want any cuts this time while the one who is loyal to the current administration voted for a one-half point cut.
Traders are now betting with a 71% chance that the Fed will reduce rates by twice in 2026, which is higher than the 64% probability from before the decision.
The most important events coming up this week are the release of more current economic data, as for instance the November jobs report along with the partial October data will be coming out on Tuesday. Wednesday sees November retail sales and Thursday has November C.P.I.
The most important earnings will be: Wednesday – MU and Thursday, beaten-down Dow component NKE.
