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February 17, 2026
Dow: 49,326
S&P: 6,804
Nasdaq: 22,358
10-YR T-Note: 4.05%
Bitcoin: 67,098
VIX: 22.11
Gold: $4,878
Crude Oil: 62.71
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
Stocks were mixed at the close of a rough week after a crucial inflation report showed prices rose less than expected last month.
The S&P and blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average each advanced 0.1% on Friday, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 0.2%. Stocks were coming off a bruising session Thursday, when the AI jitters that sparked last week’s AI downdraft flared up.
All three indexes suffered their largest weekly losses of the year. The Dow, which closed at record highs on Monday and Tuesday, finished the week down 1.2%. The S&P 1.4%, and the Nasdaq fell 2.1% to notch its fifth consecutive weekly loss.
Inflation decreased to 2.4% in January, its lowest reading since May and a bigger slowdown than economists expected, according to data released Friday. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, fell to 2.5%, its lowest print since March 2021.
Friday’s data will be one of several inflation and labor market reports factoring into the conversation when Federal Reserve officials meet to set monetary policy next month. The odds the Fed cuts interest rates in the next few months dropped sharply on Wednesday when data showed the U.S. added twice as many jobs as economists expected last month.
Treasury yields fell following the release of Friday's inflation report. The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which impacts interest rates on a variety of consumer loans including mortgages, fell to 4.05% from 4.11% at Thursday’s close. This is the lowest level since October, down 23 basis points from a couple of weeks earlier.
COIN soared 17% despite reporting a steep drop in revenue due to slumping crypto prices. This one had gone into the day in a very weakened position due to the collapse of bitcoin prices lately. AMAT8% after the semiconductor manufacturing equipment maker topped earnings estimates on strong demand for AI chips. The AI data center boom also drove strong results at ANET, shares of which rose 5%.
PINS plummeted 17% on its weak results and DKNG fell 14% after issuing a disappointing revenue forecast.
Big tech stocks continued to feel the pressure after sliding the day before, NVDA and AAPL each fell more than 2%, while GOOG and META shed more only Magnificent Seven stock to inch higher.
Gold futures rebounded from the previous day sharp drop, rising to $5,050 an ounce. West Texas Intermediate futures, the U.S. crude oil benchmark, were little changed at $62.85 a barrel.
Bitcoin rebounded from yesterday's lows around $65,000 to trade at $68,800 in the late afternoon. The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the value of the greenback against a basket of global currencies, dipped 0.1% at 96.85.
One negative aspect has been that around 2pm on each of the past three days, around 2pm the various indices which have been higher, start to go into a bit of a freefall and finish in slightly negative territory.
On the other hand, there has been strength in the old-time physical aspects of the S&P index that includes CAT, MCD, WMT, JNJ, PG and HD which actually finished the week higher despite the fact that the main SPX index ended lower as mentioned. This shows the shifting that has taken place recently. This has resulted in the S&P mid-cap index being ahead 8% this year.
The issue for the traditional Magnificent Seven is that it is valued at just under 30 times earnings estimates for this year, as compared with a price/earnings ratio of 22 for the S&P. This has resulted in this item being down 7.3% year to date.
One reason for dismissing another rate cut is that the benign CPI print was lowered by a sharp drop in used-car prices. Let it be remembered that the decline in January rents , which represent the January personal consumption index , which are the Fed’s main inflation gauge, could show a year over year increase of more than 3%,compared with the central bank’s 2% target.
Earnings this week see the following: today - CNDS, MDT and PANW; Thursday – Dow component WMT plus DE and NEM, BKNG.
Economic reports will have: release of minutes from the last meeting in January; Friday – December personal consumption expenditures index with a 2.8% projected gain; advance forecast of adjusted growth rate which is supposed to be 2.8% down from 4.4% for the third quarter.
