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June 29, 2026
Dow: 51,876
S&P: 7,354
Nasdaq: 25,297
10-YR T-Note: 4.37%
Bitcoin: 60,658
VIX: 18.29
Gold: $4,063
Crude Oil: 69.78
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
This past week, the market took a deep plunge, as the S&P dropped by 2%, at the same time that the Mag 7 collapsed by 6% on track to drop 13% for the month while the Nasdaq was lower by 4.6% is.
Technology has separated itself from other areas of the market because the AI buildout is getting really expensive as many microchips are going toward data centers that there are not enough left for consumer devices and this is beginning to affect the price of tech products. This week AAPL raised the prices on computers and iPads by hundreds of dollars as the company said it can not stand to deal with the price increases. And then sure enough on Friday it rallied back by more than it fell the day before just to show how wrong the bearish people on this were the day before.
Open AI, the maker of Chat GDP, is now thinking of holding off its IPO until next year, as the newly listed shares of SpaceX have been lower in recent sessions after hitting $210 two weeks ago and this could dampen enthusiasm for other blockbuster offerings.
Meanwhile, investors are moving into the Dow with CAT accounting for most of the gains, along with transportation names, in addition to biotech names and banks doing better.
Then there are the price swings of crude oil, which has now declined to $69.23 a barrel to levels not seen before the war with Iran. This was even after Iran struck a container ship in the Gulf of Hormuz and the U.S. attacked that country as these concerns are still in the equation.
This week sees earnings from pathetic Dow performer NKE who many experts say buying down here is good, along with General Mills the next day on Wednesday.
Economic reports include: Tuesday – June Consumer Confidence; Thursday – June non-farm payrolls which is supposed to show a gain of 113,000 after the prior month’s advance of 172,000 in May. Job growth is averaging 114,000 a month this year after just 10,000 a month in 2025.
Alan Greenspan is being remembered as the Federal Reserve chairman who presided, in the 1990s, over the longest stretch of uninterrupted economic growth then on record. Much of the credit for that stemmed from his recognition of the role of information technology that permitted the economy to grow without generating inflation, which allowed the Fed to forgo interest-rate increases.
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan passed away at age 100 this past week, just on the heels of the arrival of the central bank’s new leader, Kevin Warsh. It is an opportune time to assess whether Chairman Warsh’s tenure will resemble Greenspan’s. After all, Warsh mentioned Greenspan numerous times during his swearing-in ceremony and promoted Greenspan’s ideology during his first Fed press conference on June 17, effectively positioning the former chairman as his role model for how to conduct monetary policy.
The starkest difference between then and now is the fiscal policy situation. During the 1990’s the budget moved from a steep deficit into a turn of the century surplus, which importantly relieved inflationary pressures which importantly relieved pressures that the Fed otherwise would have had to counter. This allowed for interest rates to decline. The capital that would have gone to fund the budget deficit now was able to invest in the internet and telecom boom.
Now, by contrast, federal deficits are at 6% of G.D.P. and the annual interest on this has moved past $1 trillion dollars, making it the highest level in the federal deficit. The end of the Cold War helped slow the peace dividend to 18% of G.D.P. from over 21% at the beginning. Inflation was further contained by the opening of emerging economies of the 1990’s such as China, which gave a supply shock of inexpensive goods and labor. Mr. Greenspan attributed these events to the noninflationary during his long tenure which began in 1997.
In contrast to that, the current administration is looking to sharply increase military spending to $1.5 trillion next year. This would allow deficits to rise to $3.1 trillion by 2036, or 6.7% of G.D.P. Tariffs would also put upward pressure on domestic prices, which is another contrast from the 1990’s. This contrasts with Mr. Greenspan having to deal with the bankruptcy of Orange County California and the Mexico peso crises.
It is doubtful that Mr. Warsh will be able to raise interest rates repeatedly to meet the Fed’s goal of 2% inflation and does one think that the current President will allow Mr. Warsh to “do his own thing” in guiding the Fed? The disinflation trends of the 1990’s that resulted in the “Greenspan put” which helped guide things through the long-term collapse of Long Tern Capital Management and the Russian default even as the overall economy remained robust?
The current Fed now has to deal with high deficits made worse by interest costs and demographics, rising geopolitical tensions, military spending and less free trade. Whether the promise of AI can deliver for Mr. Warsh as it did for Mr. Greenspan remains a good question mark.
